EDIT: 01/12/14

EDIT: Thank you all for taking the time to read this. The overwhelming majority of your responses have been very supportive, and I feel that I got a lot of perspective. I am in tears right now, because in my self-loathing state I really did not expect so much positive feedback. I need to come clean to my fiancee, because that is the one variable that I can control.

This is a story of luck, hope, greed, despair, stupidity. Over the past 10 days I have gone one a rollercoaster ride of the full spectrum of human emotion. I am trying to live down what happened, and maybe this AMA will help me. I feel this can work both ways too, and I am grateful for any advice I receive. Hopefully also it will help you!

I say that I hope my story will help you and I really mean that any of you, because let me start off by saying that I am not a gambler, and I have never even exhibited gambling tendencies before. I am a risktaker and I enjoy new experiences, but I have always considered myself responsible and I have a sound understanding of the maths behind gambling. I know that the house always wins. But after what happened to me, how quickly I got sucked in, how much money I made, and how it all ended just days later, I honestly do not feel that I was fully in control of my actions. If it happened to me, it can happen to you too, and I sincerely hope that after reading this, it never will.

Let me give some more specific details, so that you have a more complete picture. I will fill in the rest in response to your questions.

EDIT: I ran out of space for proof, please see comments.

  • My name is Bob. I am a grad student in math, living in California1 .
  • I got into Bitcoin as an investment. The last 15 days or so have been extremely tempestuous for Bitcoin, and the events of this AMA coincided with the biggest crash in Bitcoin's history.
  • Around late march I started learning how to play blackjack, just as a fun hobby. I am a multi-faceted person with many interests, and this was just another mini-hobby that I took up. I was very interested in basic strategy, and was hoping to use it at a casino on our 2-year anniversary with my fiancee. She loves to "gamble" in a very innocent sense of the word: she and her girlfriends will go to a casino, have some drinks and have fun losing a bunch of $25 promotional vouchers. I wanted to come with her and impress her by scraping a small profit with basic strategy2 .
  • I then discovered bitZino (www.bitzino.com), and I realized that the best way to learn basic strategy is to have a small financial stake to motivate me. I played for small stakes, made some money, then took a couple of bad beats. I lost most of my investment profits and was down to about $4,000. Then I switched to roulette3 . I quickly recouped my losses, and began to lose myself. This was the beginning of the end.
  • On April 1, Bitcoin broke $100 for the first time. I played more and more, and the value of my winnings increased more and more. I was suddenly into big money.
  • By April 10, I had worked my way up to almost $500,000. I realized how lucky I was to have this amount of money. It was Bitcoin, but it was one click away from being in my bank account: this was real money.
  • That morning, the crash began. I kept playing. On April 10 I lost all my profits. (I don't want to clutter the summary with specific details, but if you are interested, I posted them below.)
  • At this point I was in full-tilt mode. Mt.Gox was closed for a 24-hour cooldown following the crash, but even this 24-hour period was not enough for me. A part of me just shut off, and this was when I made the Really Big Mistake. I dipped into my student tuition loan (around $50,000). I turned into an animal, and I lost everything.
  • I literally went almost mad at this point. Out of grief I contacted bitzino and exchanged some pitiful emails. They were very supportive, emotionally4 . I am not even sure what I hoped to achieve (I did not sleep for 2 days, drank and took a lot of anti-anxiety meds, which can make you act in weird ways).
  • My fiancee knew I was upset, and I owned up that I lost a lot of money. I said it was due to the crash (which did happen on the same day). She could see the charts so she believed me, but she does not know that I lost every single cent. Lies, but I felt that I did what I had to do (her dad had a major gambling and alcohol problem, so I really could not break her heart like that.)
  • The money that I lost is for tuition. It's just under $50k as I already said. The most immediate payment is due end of May, which is around $5k (the remainder of this academic year). The rest ($40k) is due over the following academic year (13/14). If I can pay off the $5k I will at least survive until the summer and maybe nobody will notice. I have not told anybody what happened, except my flatmate who I have known since high school and am pretty close with.
  • The reality is I will most likely be forced to withdraw from the program, because the payments are due September and Christmas and my visa status does not permit me to work part-time. I will have to return home to England and I will lose my fiancee (who is also on a student visa).

So this is pretty much my story. I meant for this to be short, but I now I'm almost at the word limit. I hope there is still room for questions!

I realize that there are a lot of people who will say that I had it coming, and I fully accept that. The truth is that I am a bad person, and it was not even some conflict of good and bad, this was just all bad. I lose as a human being, and I deserve nothing but the worst of what life has to offer me in the future. And if I sound incongruently cheerful, it's probably because the gravity of the situation has not fully sunk in yet. Trust me, I am not cheerful. I have literally lost everything, I am suicidal, and there is literally no silver lining here. So please reserve your judgment; I will be judged to the fullest extent over however long a time I have left to live.

Gambling details:

  • By April 10, I had gambled my way up to almost $500,000. That morning, the crash began. I foresaw the crash, but like most speculators, I did not know where the top was going to be. It was at $266. I put in a sell when the price went below $230, which was my stop, but Mt.Gox (the main Bitcoin exchange) was lagged so badly that my order would not go through.

  • Not being able to sell, I got greedy and decided to "top up" one more time with roulette. I felt justified in this somehow because it was Mt.Gox's fault that I could not cash out my ridiculous profits. I started with a $100 bet I believe. I bet on red. What followed was a run of about 20 occurences of black5 . There must have been two reds in between the stream of blacks. After hitting the max bet I just kept hitting red, and it kept turning black. Once you hit the max bet, the martingale essentially turns into a random walk. So a single red does not save you. Instead you rely on more red than blacks, within a certain safety margin. I failed both the martingale and the random walk. I lost ~1800 BTC (~$380,000 and depreciating quickly) in less than 1 minute.

  • I still had $50,000 left in USD. After the crash died down, I immediately bought in BTC to make up the losses. I kept betting red, and hit another run of about 12-15 black5 . I lost the $50,000 the same way.

  • April 12: at this point I was in full-tilt mode. I figured if I can just double up, then I can at least make up for the previous bullet point, if not the one before that. I kept betting on red, as a matter of stubborn principle (surely not again). And I swear you could not make this shit up: another run of 10+ black5 . I lost it all.

1 Some of the names and places may be fictitious.

2 I was never a gambler, but I do have a degree in math: there's around a 90% chance that you will top up by 10% if you combine basic strategy with martingale. The inherent variance, 3/2 payouts and doubling makes the whole process very confusing to an untrained eye, and it's not that obvious that you are using a cheap and flawed betting system. Scraping a small profit is very easy and fun. I guess I just wanted to impress my fiancee and her friends.

3 The bad beats with Blackjack were mainly due to variance. The problem with Blackjack is that the house edge is calculated by considering a large number of hands with the same starting bet. But with martingales, getting a 3/2 payout is more beneficial with higher bets; likewise having to split/double is good with higher bets, but not good if you're up against the max bet. So the luck further compounded by variance of the bet amount with respect to the starting hand. In roulette the house edge is worse, the but game is a lot more homogeneous.

4 I gave bitZino about 6 months of their earnings from last year in just under one minute: http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/01/bitcoin-based-casino-rakes-in-over-500000-profit-in-six-months/

5 The probability of a run of 7 black is just under 1%, which is a number that we can relate to, it's 1 in 100. Pretty unlikely. If your luck sucks you might hit it a few times. The probability of 10 blacks is just under 0.1%. So if you hit one of the above, then only count is 1 in 10 times. Your luck has got to really suck to hit that more than once. The probability of an initial run of 12 black is around 0.02%, which is just ridiculously low. The probability of 20 black is about 0.0001% which is astronomically low. Disregarding the 2 reds, since I hit the max limit, so not really a fair account, but still. This is almost impossible.

Comments: 409 • Responses: 35  • Date: 

Balthanos396 karma

This has nothing to do with bitcoins and everything to do with your gambling addiction.

Have you sought professional help?

WinnerAndLoser77 karma

Thank you. Yes, this has nothing to do with Bitcoin, except to provide context.

I have not sought anything at this point. I don't have any money left, so I don't see how Gamblers Anonymous will help me right now.

EDIT: The main point of mentioning Bitcoin was to explain how I got from almost nothing to such a huge number. It was not just luck, but also the insane growth of Bitcoin since April 1. Second, I just wanted to paint the complete picture and provide proof, so that people understand and can believe the story. Finally, I imagine that gambling with Bitcoin is different to gambling on any other website. The immediacy of it makes it very dangerous. No deposite, no wire transfers. Literally, from having the funds on Mt.Gox to being completely bankrupt took less than 3 minutes. Withdrawals are instant and everything is irreversible. Definitely a feature of Bitcoin, but one that makes such situations much easier.

KnowledgeFountain67 karma

Why play roulette if your a mathematician? That doesn't make sense to me. Maybe there's some 'strategy' that I'm missing.

WinnerAndLoser15 karma

As a mathematician, I don't have any "system" that succeeds. No system can ever succeed in a negative EV game. But as a mathematician I have a good grasp of the probability of any event, including the combined probability of multiple events. That makes it kind of easier to justify gambling. Combine this knowledge with greed, and simply the fact that I am human, and you have a recipe for what happened to me.

DoItWright75 karma

This is one flawed logic that many gamblers fall into. At the beginning of play, the likelihood of 20 black in a row is .0001%. At the point when there have already had 19 black in a row you still have a 50% chance of getting black at that point. This is due to the fact that blacks are not being removed from the pool of possible options. They say "what is the likelihood that another black will come and in fact it is 50%.

Your "knowledge" can be considered misleading to people that don't understand probability at a high level. I think you need to admit this is not anything to do with your knowledge of mathematics and 100% due to you falling into a common fallacies of gamblers. It happens to many people and is nothing to be ashamed of but I feel this AMA could be very misleading.

ejvice18 karma

so true: why is it so tough to get everyone to understand? In gambling, recent events in no way affect the probability of future events. A coin will always have a 50% chance to land on heads, no matter how many tails came before it

WinnerAndLoser15 karma

You are absolutely correct, flipping a coin is a Markov proces. That is what I explained in several replies. It doesn't matter whether you make several small bets or one large bet. The overall probability of hitting a certain target, given a certain bankroll, is the same. However, understanding of the fundamentals behind each roll does not prevent the narratives that gamblers write for themselves. It is all psychological, and it's all an illusion. Understanding the maths behind it makes it worse in some ways.

motor_city5 karma

Come on, if you're gonna gamble, at use the law of large numbers and probability and play black jack!

WinnerAndLoser1 karma

I addressed that in one of my footnotes.

nuovo_donna36 karma

I am not a gambler, and I have never even exhibited gambling tendencies before. I am a risktaker

Sorry, the two are synonymous. Gambling is more about the high than it is about the money. I realized I had the same problem back in the first .com boom. I was daytrading in and out of positions like a crazy person. I was margined to the hilt, and my story ended up exactly like yours. I gained the world within a few months and then lost almost everything, and became suicidally depressed.

Just know that there is a way back. You're obviously smart, although perhaps not yet wise. Focus on you, focus on a career. Don't ruminate on what you lost or whatever random bet you believe to your downfall. The downfall wasn't that bet. It was that you began the process at all. Your eventual downfall was preordained from that moment forward. It was just a matter of time.

Slow and steady wins the race.

WinnerAndLoser4 karma

Thank you. Your comment really resonates with me. As much as I like to pretend that I would have stopped eventually, I think I always had "one more bet" in me... and maybe it's better that I lose everything after just 10 days, than if I had bought a put down a downpayment on a house with this money, and then lost everything. Life could be a lot worse, I guess.

And I know what you mean about the high. I daytraded too, and this was partially what caused me to gamble during the crash. I sort of justified it as "every speculator is basically gambling and right now they're all losing, I'm probably better off playing roulette".

As pathetic as it sounds, if I could go back in time, if I had one more chance, I would definitely not gamble again. But right now my concerns are not on my future, but on my immediate present. I'm really fucked at this moment.

ZeroContributions29 karma

Reading through the top half of your text wall, I have to argue:

You are not a bad person. You suffered from some poor decision making, yes, but it is also a significant learning experience. You're smarter, now. Hopefully your future will reflect that.

WinnerAndLoser14 karma

Thank you for your comment. I don't regret losing the profits (easy come easy go), but the bad person part was gambling with money that is not mine. Although I had impaired impulse control, I was still fully aware of the consequences. The same can be said for thieves and murderers. So it may be on a smaller scale, but yes, I am a bad person.

NADSAQ24 karma

If Mt. Gox had not lagged would this all have been avoided?

Tough luck, but as cliche as it sounds your true character only shows when your back is against the wall. G'luck, this is just a stumbling block in your life. 30 years from now you're gonna be more proud of you how you got out of this situation rather than how you got yourself in this situation. It all starts with a positive mindset and not a defeatist one.

I wish I could offer some better advice on what steps to take, but I'm ignorant on this situation. I will upvote for visibility and hopefully someone on Reddit can truly help you.

WinnerAndLoser17 karma

Thank you for your kind words.

If Mt. Gox had not lagged would this all have been avoided?

Absolutely yes. I had the market sell in there for hours. If it had gone through I would have cashed out after the crash and none of this would have happened. But of-course it's not Mt.Gox's fault, it's mine.

mepher21 karma

Be careful with that compulsive spirit you have there. My thoughts; do not dwell on this loss, come clean to your woman. Also, less gambling and more Kipling :)

If you can make one heap of all your winnings And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss, And lose, and start again at your beginnings And never breathe a word about your loss; If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew To serve your turn long after they are gone, And so hold on when there is nothing in you Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'

WinnerAndLoser7 karma

Ha, thank you so much! I believe a part of that poem is above the Wimbledon grounds. I really need some inspirational quotes right now!

asimpleenigma16 karma

Did you think you were going to beat the house edge? I'm surprised as a graduate math student you do not recognize it. Sure you can card count with blackjack, but that's impossible in online blackjack, since they will shuffle the deck after each hand. You stated yourself that roulette has an even worse edge, and really the only way to beat that is colluding with the dealer or a biased wheel, none you will get online.

I'm sure you know better than anyone that long term the house edge will always win. Sure you can get lucky in the short term (as you did) but its basic statistics that it will eventually normalize.

How did you let yourself get sucked into that when you know the math behind it?

WinnerAndLoser9 karma

NO. It is not possible to beat the house edge. In the long term the gambler always loses. But in the short term, the gambler can win a lot of money. And just like with the Bitcoin market, the problem is that the short term ends without warning and the long term catches up.

It was real irony, in the classical Greek sense. I knew exactly what I was in for, and I knew it was going to happen eventually, but I always just thought... maybe not now... just not this one last time...

I got sucked in not through lack of knowledge, but through greed. If you martingale, each time there is a small probability that you lose, such that it is almost negligible. But in the end they add up, such that for example, the odds of doubling up through many small bets are the same as through one huge 50/50 bet. It's all the same, but it feels different when you're doing it. You begin to believe that you will lose but just not this time.

And this all happened in such a short time frame that I never really had time to reflect on it and examine my own stupidity.

vamooo19 karma

You seem to understand all the issues, but still go through with -EV decisions, which means you have a massive compulsive behavior problem, please seek professional help

petespetes8 karma

it seems like he's using his knowledge of the math to convince himself that he's better than all the other compulsive gamblers out there. understanding math but not understanding the real world is a dangerous thing.

WinnerAndLoser3 karma

Basically this. I understand math and it gives me a false sense of delusion, like somehow the fact that I can calculate complicated combined odds makes me better than some other "sucker" that is just betting stupidly. I mean I don't verbalize it like this, but this is the mindset. The knowledge doesn't save you. It's not knowledge that gambling addicts seem to lack.

As someone else posted in another reply, his father was a mathematician and a gambling addict. So it happens.

jzc1714 karma

You're a mathematics major? And you didn't know that american roulette (0 and 00) has some of the worst odds in the house?!

WinnerAndLoser3 karma

Yes I did. First, it is European roulette. Please see my footnotes. Bitzino does not offer a great selection of games, and blackjack and roulette are the only two that I knew how to play.

WinnerAndLoser13 karma


Not sure how I can provide irrefutable proof. The following can be easily fabricated, so I guess you have to make up your own mind.

komenburger9 karma

If you could have one last gamble to win it all back or double your debt, would you?

WinnerAndLoser10 karma

Honestly, yes. I know that makes it seem like I did not "learn my lesson" but the reality is I don't care so much about personal debt as I do about hurting those around me. If there was any chance at all that I could undo this stupidity, I would take it. I don't care about losing my profits, I just want to be debt-free. I just want my life back.

But such is life, you reap what you sow.

purrpurr626568 karma

Uhhhh I don't know anything about gambling, but this sounds awful and I hope that you can pull it together somehow. I read the whole thing, so I had to comment...or something!

Good lord, please be honest with your fiancee. Being honest is seriously the only path to beginning to accomplish anything. Even if that means she's PISSED and walks away, at least you jump into that step right now rather than delaying the inevitable. The sooner you get the ball rolling on taking responsibility, the sooner you're able to come up with some solutions. Surely, if there are things you can to do start that process before breaking the full blown news to her, then I would take the time to do those things.

I'm assuming you can get some sort of employment while you are not able to pursue the Math program? So I guess that's my question - what were you planning to do with your life, and what kinds of employment can you obtain without a degree?

EDIT: Fiancee, not wife. My b :)

WinnerAndLoser1 karma

She is not my wife yet, and I know her well enough to know that once she finds out, she never will be (see third-last bullet point). Of-course, I should come clean. But if by some miracle I could undo all this mess so that nobody find out, I would do that.

To answer your question: I have 2-3 years left. I was planning to stay in academia.

purrpurr6265612 karma

Realistically, how can you clean up this mess without anyone knowing? That is not resonating with me. I can think of a series situations where a spouse or SO has kept this kind of crucial information back, and one of the first criticism from the SO when they find out is "why the fuck didn't you tell me sooner?" Seriously - reconsider. SERIOUSLY.

Aside from all of that, it's just plain selfish not to tell her. You sit here and say that you KNOW she will leave you. Give her the opportunity, then, to make that decision. It's not your choice, it's hers.

WinnerAndLoser2 karma

Thanks. I don't know how. I have not thought this through, but I completely agree with you.

courtFTW7 karma

When you had $500,000 worth, could you literally just cash out?

WinnerAndLoser3 karma

Yes I could. I was one click away.

ilovecreamcheese5 karma

I don't feel like it's too late to rescue yourself. The way I see it, you have two paths. You can secure another loan or get another job to cover your tuition and related expenses and continue with your academic career (while attending GA sessions). Otherwise your worst fear might come to fruition. If you don't mind me asking, how old are you?

WinnerAndLoser3 karma

I am in my late twenties.

myusernameisnew5 karma

Does your fiancee know about this?

WinnerAndLoser6 karma

Not yet. See third-last bullet point.

th3shark34 karma

This is not a question but rather a comment. Life is amazing, and things are meant to be for one reason or another. I am not taking away your responsibility in any way or shape here, but, you will see, that things happened for a reason. Small story in terms of taking on the odds. This is pre-revolutionary Ukraine. My great great uncle just got his first job, running errands for a rich land owner. The land owner trusts my uncle enough to task him to deposit a large sum of money into a bank. While walking to the bank, my uncle decides to gamble the money (crazy choice). He wins, ten times the money he was sent to deposit. He cashes it out, returns to his boss and tells him the story. The boss takes his money away, fires my uncle but allows him to keep the winnings. My uncle decides to start a business, he does so, makes a name of his own. Eventually, the great revolution happens. He turns most of his assets and turns them into jewelry and hides them under a tree. The "reds" come and interrogate him and his wife to find out where all his money went, he didnt break down, his wife kept silent as well. The "reds" let them go. My uncle went and dug up the jewelry and with his wife escaped to western europe. He opened his business there and prospered, until WWII hit. He turned his riches into jewelry again and burried them close to his house. The Nazi came and interrogated him, just like the "reds" did, he didnt say a thing, nether did his wife. The Nazi let them go. My uncle fled and fought in the resistance against the Nazi, surviving against odds (although loosing one of his sons). After WWII was over, he went to where he hid the jewels to start over for the third time. When he found the rough place where he hid the jewels, he found the place in ruins and heavily bombed and never found his jewels. Believe it or not, he returned to the Ukraine and lived there with the remainder of his family. When my grandmother and I were escaping the radioactive effects of Chernobyl, we visited my great great uncle. When I met my great great uncle, he was pass his 90's, he was mostly deaf but still very sound of mind and spirit. Through our conversation he proudly pointed to the wall, and there, inside a frame, almost as new, was an old ruble (currency at the time), it was one of the bills that he was told to deposit but he chose to gamble with. Stay positive! :)

WinnerAndLoser2 karma

Thank you for your comment. That is an amazing story and really puts things into perspective. It's profound how this one episode led to the way in which his entire life unfolded, and I am sure that at the end of his days he did not regret any of his decisions.

If I can stay positive, I'm sure better things will come from my loss. The thing that makes it difficult is that it's not some weird anomaly or an act of God. It was me that dug this hole, and in some ways I foresaw all of this. This does not feel so much of a shock as an inevitability, and it makes it difficult to be philosophical about it when I know that objectively speaking I was in full control of the situation.

In any case, thank you for sharing your story.

crucialbiscuit3 karma

What are your top 5 movies of all time?

WinnerAndLoser6 karma

1: American Beauty.

I don't want to say any more, just in-case some of my real-life friends read this and recognize me.

CaptainQueefer2 karma

Hi Bob. Thanks for doing this AMA, and i can partially relate but on a much smaller scale which I wont go into right now. Anyways, being able to successfully accumulate that much money and losing it in such a short period of time is slightly baffling to me. On your "crash" or "decline" would you mind elaborating into what your mindset was like? Did you consider stepping away at any point? And in hindsight is their any advice you would offer to people who have tasted gambling earnings?

WinnerAndLoser7 karma

There were really two events. The first was the massive dump of about 2000 BTC. That didn't feel like anything. It was just a single breath, and before I exhaled it was gone. I don't remember doing it. I just felt dead inside.

The second was the classic gambler's behavior. I thought I was above it, but I wasn't. Once I lost around $350,000 I just wanted to win that back. Once I lost another $50,000, I just wanted to win that back. It's always bigger and bigger amounts to recoup losses, and before you know it, you're done.

I turned into an animal. I knew I should stop, but I could not.

BenghaliTiger101 karma

Proof or you're a creative writing major.

WinnerAndLoser1 karma

Proof is in the comments.

French871 karma

So wait, how many BTC do you have left? If any?

I may have missed this.

And at what price did you buy?

If you're lucky itl bounce back, assuming you did not buy at it's peak price. If you bought at 100, I think it will get back to at least that amount.

WinnerAndLoser1 karma

I have 0.01008271 left so it can bounce back to an ATH for all the good that would do me.

shamanlu1 karma

Friend you have a lot to learn but don't let that discourage you from taking the difficult path you still have ahead! What you decide to do from here will define who you are, just realize that everyone goes through set backs but the winners in life learn from life's lessons and come back stronger and smarter (and hopefully a little wiser too).

WinnerAndLoser0 karma

Thank you.

HKHunter1 karma

Unfortunately I think you're downfall is not being a gambler. Most gamblers, myself included, learn the lesson earlier and with smaller stakes (which seem big at the time). I love to gamble, but i know to write off the money as soon as i put it down. If i can't afford to lose then i don't bet.

I know how you must of felt, i lost a reasonable amount spreadbetting on forex. It stops feeling like real money when you've won and lost thousands from week to week. You become completely irrational and start taking positions because you think the market owes you. I'm sure it's been said on this thread but the casino / market doesn't have a memory.

WinnerAndLoser1 karma

Yeah, daytrading is what sort of led me to gambling, at least morally. It used to be a line that I never considered crossing, but once I realized that daytrading basically is gambling, it sort of became easier to embrace.

tareggam-1 karma

Dude, I would sue the Mt Gox people for not putting through your sale that's literally theft. I would contact a lawyer immediately. They stole from you when they didn't put it through. You can probably get some of it back.

WinnerAndLoser0 karma

I really don't think I have a case.

Goathead9-13 karma

I think I can honestly say that what you should do right now is gamble a little more. After all, you had a below 0.1% to hit that losing streak, as you yourself said; surely there must be at least one win round the corner? If you won back just part of what you lost, your story would be easier to bear for all involved; you wouldn't look so bad; you might even survive the semester? Besides, you've come this far: what more have you got to lose? You owe it your fiance to at least try, don't you? You owe it to yourself, too, Bob- of course you do. Just think: what more harm could there possibly be in going just one more time? ... And yet compared to that, how much more gain! :)

WinnerAndLoser6 karma

Sadly, the response above is the correct one. Gambling is a memoryless process, so each time you go in, you're going in "on a clean slate".

noueis1 karma

If math has no memory, then how would you find the combined probability of successive events? Or does gambling indeed regress back to the mean?

WinnerAndLoser2 karma

Because once we know if it's red of black, that outcome is determined. The probability of the next roll being red or black is still 50/50 (minus the zero), but in hindsight it would be expressed as P(red) given red or given black. The probability is only small to start with, but it all adds up in the end.