IamA former Presidential campaign and Congressional staffer. Hooo boy, what the hell is going on with this election? I'll do my best to explain. AMA!

What is Ted Cruz' appeal? He just won Iowa and I'm a moderate who can be persuaded to vote for Republicans when they are sane people. I just don't get it, he looks like he wants to sell me a used Volvo.

I just don't get it, he looks like he wants to sell me a used Volvo.

That's exactly what he's doing. Look -- I don't like the guy, but I understand his appeal. He is a con artist who sells snake oil to gullible people.

Here's how Cruz works.

You are now Senator Sierra. You have voted conservative for 20 years. You work hard for your constituents. You vote your whole career for low taxes, pro-life, small government, pro-2nd amendment, and a strong military.

Enter Senator Cruz. He shakes your hand. Then he goes to the floor and says "Senator Sierra isn't a REAL conservative. He wants to take away your guns. He loves Obamacare. Help me stop this FAKE conservative from destroying America."

Cruz then sends out the fundraiser "Donate $3 to help Liberty Lover Ted Cruz from stopping Senator Sierra!"

He works like a conspiracy theorist. That is they invent shadowy enemies, and then stand themselves up as the hero. They are the only ones who can save you from this non-existenant threat that they've convinced you is real.

It's why Cruz has no friends in the Senate. His line is that it's because they hate his liberty loving policies. In reality, it's because he's an overly ambitious liar that stabs allies in the back in order to advance his own agenda.

Opiate of the asses...

So Ted Cruz is Syndrome from The Incredibles?

that's being generous I think

If you're a Limbaugh and Mark Levin type conservative, who has Ted Cruz stabbed in the back that you would actually consider a conservative and not a RINO? I doubt Ted Cruz stabbing establishment republicans in the back would be considered a negative thing by these types of conservatives, quite the opposite.

This primary, as Cruz has said, is more about the grassroots vs the establishment. While liberals may not appreciate or notice this specific divide, it is extremely important. Grassroot republicans actually criticize establishment republicans more harshly than most Democrats do! In fact, this is a parallel to the Reagan campaign. Reagan was hated by establishment/Rockefeller republicans, because he was grassroots and anti-establishment.

In many ways, establishment Democrats and Republicans have more in common with eachother than they do with their respective "extremes". For example: democrat and republican establishments are both for the TPP while Cruz, Sanders, and Trump are against it. What this tells me is that this election and primary are a lot about nationalism vs globalism. Protectionism vs global free trade. Local/national business vs transnational corporations. National identity vs forced multiculturalism.

Don't agree with me? Notice how many Rand Paul supporters are going to Sanders. Notice how many Trump supporters like Bernie. While this concept is considered absurd by the establishment, this trend wasn't surprising to me at all.

Damn you made it too easy.

Sen Mike Lee

Lee is also Cruz’s best friend—maybe his only friend—in the Senate. In his memoir, Cruz writes that no one stood by him “more courageously or indispensably” than Lee during his 21-hour anti-Obamacare speech that preceded the 2013 government shutdown. The pair have a joint fundraising committee and have posed together with a tiger-skin rug.

When Lee brought up his bill in the committee hearing, he wasn’t sure if he’d have Cruz’s support. But he certainly didn’t anticipate what came next.

Cruz attacked the bill as dangerous and politically poisonous....

Lee, who was sitting right next to Cruz, could not believe what he was hearing.

Why is this marked NSFW?

Short answer? I'm a fat-fingered dummy.

Will throw in some expletives and /r/gonewild links to make it more legit.

Fuck yeah, you better. Penis.

hahaha

Was really hoping for some crazy nsfw stories

I'm really sorry about that man. Haven't used Reddit in a while and I'm a big idiot.

I hate, hate, hate clickbait and that's exactly what the NSFW tag is. Honest mistake.

On the very outside chance Clinton is handed an indictment, how much chaos would that actually cause and would you see it as Chaotic Good, Neutral or Evil?

holy shit I can't even contemplate. No one knows how that will go down. I guess Bernie is next in line...

I don't think the Obama Justice Department does it. But the FBI is leaking like a sieve on her. They know that if a sergeant or an airmen did what she did, they would be in jail right now. They hate the double standard and I don't blame them.

I'm curious as to your thoughts on Classified Communication in a digital age- specifically how I've heard through some of the hearings Clinton was at where it was stated there are no secured mobile devices for transmitting Classified documents and "How am I supposed to travel and do my job when I can't read what I need to read when I need to read it?"

A secretary has all kinds of tools are her disposal to communicate securely. This is especially true of a secretary of state.

Okay, I need to ask, please respond!

The media fuzz has made it very difficult to truly understand this but, could you please explain in the most factual and unbiased basis what it is exactly that Hillary did?

Shortest version possible -- violated the law in the handling of classified information.

Do you think Trump is actually electable as a president? What about Bernie?

Sorry I just realized I got blindsided by TRUMP! and forgot Bernie.

Look -- I think Bernie has the same hangups in a general election. You notice how most Democrats aren't attacking Trump? It's because they want to run against that guy in November.

The same dynamic exists with Republicans. You see lots of GOP candidates say "y'know, I respect Bernie for speaking his mind." It's because they want to run against him in a general.

I've said that I find Bernie very refreshing. Doesn't give a shit and, you know what? he does say what's on his mind. Also a very nice man. But I don't think America is quite ready for a socialist.

Sorry :-/ I know Reddit loves the guy.

Trump's unfavorables in the GOP alone are sky high. Put him in a general election with Hillary and just look at how much moderates and independents loath the guy. In Iowa, note that 70% of those very conservative midwest voters caucused against Trump.

That said, he may have an appeal with working class Democrats. These are the guys who turn wrenches on assembly lines, fix your HVAC, and change your oil. They're union members who are sick and tired of all the PC bullshit they see oozing out of overeducated Ivy leaguers.

If Trump can cobble together some coalition that steals those votes away from Hillary (or, let's face it, she's indicted), he might be able to pull off something wild. Stranger things have happened. I'd still bet against it. But it's possible.

Indicted? You mean for the emails?

Yes. Top Secret or higher information on a private, unsecured server. Very clearly illegal.

Clintons usually can get themselves off the hook. They don't play the same set of rules as the rest of us.

You, too, watch House of Cards I see.

Paging Vince Foster...

I'm halfway season 2 so don't spoil!

That said, he may have an appeal with working class white Democrats.

FTFY.

He's the candidate who the white supremacists and white genocide doomsayers are rallying around and normal white people who have grown up relatively isolated from minorities are getting sucked into that vortex.

Yeah I think that's right. Some really scary shit coming out of his rallies. Deep seeded hatred that I thought we had successfully buried in this country.

A very prominent political reporter told me that out in Iowa, people were saying shit that he hadn't heard since the 1970s. Slurs and nativism.

My GOP friends who have been trying to expand their party's appeal are really concerned about this.

Will we ever have a moderate candidate who takes values from both sides of the aisle or will partisan fundraising prevent it?

We have them. People just don't recognize it. In fact, we punish it these days. Look at all this stupidity from the GOP base over "the establishment" (whatever the hell that is). That's their word for politicians who... gasp make deals with the other side.

Blue Dog Democrats... or boll weevils... were once a standard bearer in the south. That is Southern, pro-union democrats who were conservative on social issues and national defense. Now they've all been wiped out.

Both the left and right are trying to purge moderates from their midst. It's unhealthy and I'm really worried about it.

At what point do you think the system will snap back to moderation and how do you think it will happen? (3rd party? Moderates in both parties?) Or do you think we'll just keep getting more extreme? It doesn't seem sustainable but I feel likes it's generally American culture to push the limits further and further until something breaks.

We shop for our news now. It's no longer Walter Cronkite coming on at 630 and saying "this is what happened. This is why it happened. This is where it happened."

Now it's the WWF. Read today's political stories. It's not about policy or ideas. It's about "Trump said this about Rubio," or "Bernie said this about Hillary!" It's a bloody soap opera.

Also, if you're a conservative you go to Fox and have all your opinions validated for you. Or liberal, go to the Huffington Post and have all your opinions validated.

We are drowning in lies and it's all our fault. It's ripping us apart. It's been worse (Civil War, anyone?), but God this dynamic depresses me sometimes.

Do you think that a win for Bernie would open up future elections for "political outsiders"? I don't agree with everything he says but he seems to be the only one who actually stands for something.

Bernie's been in the Senate for years and he's chairman of a committee. Not sure how that makes him an outsider, other than his indy status -- which is really just Democrat.

Everyone is trying to posture themselves as DC outsiders -- even bozos like Cruz or Trump who have played the insider game for years.

What's your take on the Libertarian Party?

Strongest third party by a mile. But still won't get anywhere unless they caucus with Republicans. Until then, all they'll do is help Democrats beat GOP candidates by splitting the vote.

I'll ask the obvious... does Bernie have a shot?

In short? Yes.

I didn't think so a few months ago. But the combination of an enthusiastic grassroots and Hillary being a hair away from indictment has changed things. So has his incredible showing in Iowa -- which was supposed to be a solid Clinton state.

He'll likely win in New Hampshire, but Hillary has built out resources to go deep into all 50 state primaries and get the delegates she needs. Organization and ground game are key in any election. She's got it.

The safest bet in Washington is to bet on the Clintons. But I think Bernie is refreshing. He doesn't talk around things -- just answers and speaks from his heart. I think that resonates with people, even if the message is socialism.

Trump.... just... why?

People are pissed off. They see DC as corrupt and not representing their interests. So Trump's semi-coherent message about outsider status resonates with them.

The ultimate absurdity is that Trump has tried, and failed, to be a politician for over a decade. He hobnobs with lawmakers and the Clintons. He tried to buy Jeb Bush's support for casinos in Florida.

He's everything the angry folks say they hate about politics. And yet they love him.

That's something I can't believe people don't see. He's a business man, of course he knows how to rub elbows with people to make deals happen. He's just as bad as the people in office!

and he's a shitty one at that. Multiple bankruptcies.

How the fuck do you bankrupt a CASINO? You are statistically assured to make money!

You're saying that from a poor understanding of bankruptcy law. Trump has used bankruptcies as a tool for avoiding paying off debtors but while still making money. It wasn't mismanagement. Manipulative, aggressive and unfair, sure. But not bad management.

I come from the old school where declaring bankruptcy is not a sign of business acumen. I take your point, but that's how I feel about it.

Did you see his little spat with Al-Waleed recently? Fucking hilarious.

He's a disgrace and turns my stomach.

Even money -- who has the best shot in each party?

I'd bet on Rubio and Clinton.

Sorry I know there are a ton of Bernie fans here. But running against the Clintons is like sleeping with a Hippopotamus. They'll roll over and crush you, and prob won't even know they did it.

As someone with a graduate degree in american political philosophy I agree. However I would much rather see someone like Rand or Bernie as president, Rand has no chance because he dropped out and as for Bernie see above.

safest bet in Washington is to bet on the Clintons!

What about in 2008?

was still the safe bet up until Iowa! But I take your point.

Between gerrymandering, the electoral college, fake polls, and caucauses, how easy is it to manipulate the system?

Well those are all very different things.

Caucuses like the Iowa caucus? Pretty easy. I've seen 5 year olds count votes at those things (I'm looking at you, Sioux City).

Gerrymandering. Harder as it requires legislation. But it happens -- both parties do it when they can.

Fake polls. Hell... the real polls are pretty shitty. Pollsters having a tough time doing this these days, it's why Gallup --the Gold Standard for quality horserace polling-- got out of the business this year. In Iowa on Monday, pollsters were off on Trump by 6 points and Rubio by around the same.

Electoral college? Not sure what you mean by manipulating that. As we live in a representative Republic and not a pure democracy, I am a big fan of the EC. Populism hasn't gone over well in places like Latin America and I'm all in favor of systems that balance the states against the federal government.

Follow up question, what do you think about Hilary winning 6 coin tosses in a row. (1/64 chance of that happening)

I think that if you put Clinton's staff behind closed doors (right after a close election or caucus), votes will magically appear.

Some of it legitimate, some of it not. The winners in this business, like any competition, go to those who understand the rules the best.

Ah, you mean how the 223 votes turned into 232?

Something like that :)

Thanks for your answers

thanks for asking!

It's not just rules, it's also illegally acquired intelligence.

The NSA is quite capable of manipulating elections with the controlled dessimination of information.

That metadata is not about influencing activities overseas, it's domestic operations.

I'm not sure how it's connected to the metadata program but I've learned not to argue about that one on Reddit

Let's say Rand Paul sat down with you, and honestly asked you what he could do to become president - what would you recommend?

/This isn't his alt account, just curious

I don't know. He strayed from his pure libertarianism early on and I think he realized that was a mistake. He tried to soften his stance against more US military spending, as voters are pretty worried about the world right now.

He realized that was a mistake and went back to full bore libertarianism. But it was too late.

So I think he already knows. Stay true to who he is, and just hope the country becomes more accepting of his political philosophy.

Why do the electoral college and Iowa caucuses even exist? What's the harm in the person with the most votes winning?

I've struggled for years to understand delegates and superdelegates and all of it and it's so baffling that it's really discouraged me from being involved in politics at any level.

It's a great question and I know a lot of people are frustrated with the EC.

I, for one, am I fan. Without sounding like a pompous douche (I hope), read Plato. He saw tyranny in pure democracy. The federal system and the electoral college was our insulation against that -- a balance between states and the federal government and pure populism.

What's that line from Men in Black? Individuals are fine... but people are irrational, violent, and stupid or something along those lines.

The Iowa Caucuses I'm a little more skeptical of. But you should really see them in action. They aren't impeccably run, but it is delightful, old school version of democracy that's a hoot to see up close.

What's the actual chance Hillary gets indicted?

I would say low chance the Obama Justice Department does it. That's why the rank and file FBI types are leaking on her. You'll also notice the leaks are strategically timed around debates and before caucuses.

FBI wants people to know just how serious this is.

What are your thoughts on Rubio? He seems like a pretty moderate conservative who's gained a lot of momentum in the past month or so. He's really caught a lot of attention as of late, and I see him raising. Do you agree? What do you think of his political ideals/presidential appeal?

Likable guy. Definitely on the upswing like you said. Terrifies Democrats and especially Hillary who lost in 2008 to a charismatic young minority Senator.

They're also worried about Jeb as he has great appeal to the hispanic community, which has grown by 4 million voters since 2012.

Is JEB! toast, though?

I think he's toast.

Don't count him out yet -- showing signs of life in NH and SC is a strong Bush state.

You've mentioned Hillary being indicted several times. Can you go deeper into that? Likely/unlikely before a candidate is chosen?

What she did was illegal. Highly classified information on a loose server. The only question is whether or not she can throw a staffer under the bus to take the fall for her -- which is what the Clintons do.

I understand that Hillary is a safe bet for Democrats, I myself see her most likely getting the Democrat nomination. However, I don't understand how individuals can lack so much reason that they vote for a confirmed liar that will further the sh*t crud the nation's in right now, and what? Expect it to get better? I'm a 100% Bernie fan just for the message and (hopefully) sparking some positive change, but how can people just be with Hillary? How do they support a confirmed LIAR?

Yeah, I think that this one is up to Republicans. If they nominate some bozo like Trump or a sleaze ball like Ted Cruz, it's Hillary's to take.

If they nominate a Jeb Bush, Christie, or a Rubio, who have broad moderate appeal, I think it's a Republican white house.

What about if they nominate a John Kasich?

I have a better shot at starting as QB in the Super Bowl this sunday.

What is significantly different (or different at all) about "this election"?

Why is this one in particular a shit show? Is it the candidates? Is it the (media) coverage?

Great question. I'm really worried about this.

I think its' the fact that more and more Americans are getting their news from entertainers. Radio hosts are entertainers. Fox and MSNBC, outside a few programs like Morning Joe or Special Report, are entertainers. Online media is entertainment.

Is there any surprise that the top of the ticket in the GOP, Trump, is an entertainer?

We get the candidates we deserve. Hello reality tv.

Did you expect Trump to be as popular as he turned out to be and for this long?

No one... NO ONE did. This has been a phenomena that will be studied in US history for years.

I know a longtime GOP consultant who thinks the Republican party might need to burn itself to the ground in order to fix all the infighting. Trump's nativism would leave a scorched earth that would take decades for the Republicans to recover from. House, Senate, Gubernatorial losses if he were on top of the ticket would be huge... well, yuge even.

"This is how we learn lessons," he says.

What did you do as a congressional staffer?

How hard was life on the presidential trail?

Did your presidential candidates win?

Why did you leave the hill?

I worked in a personal member office and then on a committee. The committees, like Energy and Commerce, Ways and Means, is where you really want to be. Don't have to deal with angry constituents. No one ever calls a personal office to say "hey I love you and everything you're doing for us!"

Incredibly hard. I capped myself at two campaigns. 80 hour weeks. Loads of stress. My blood pressure went up by 20 and I went on Xanax.

No... not even a primary.

I wanted to get out of politics. I makes people mean and stupid. I got tired of people who were angry but had no idea why they were angry (usually because someone told them to be angry). I hate personal attacks and drama. It just wasn't for me.

Thanks for the reply. Follow up: How did you first get started in politics and how did this lead to your Capitol Hill job? If you had to move there from another city, was it worth it at the time? Also, we're the personal attacks towards you in specific or team members?

I found someone who had good Hill contacts and I got in at the ground level.

I also had military experience which is really respected and, I think, more valuable than a graduate degree.

I like to joke that being a veteran is the closest a white male like me can get to being a minority :) -- and all the hiring preferences that go with

Assuming you were the campaign manager for the following, what would your strategy be to secure the nomination going forward?

• Trump
• Cruz
• Rubio
• Jeb/Christie/Kasich
• Clinton
• Bernie

Trump -- "what's a strategy?"

Cruz -- "We need to figure out how to expose you to sunlight without you turning to dust."

Rubio -- "Keep on keeping on."

Jeb -- "Win in NH, take it to SC which is a pro-Bush state."

Clinton -- "stay out of jail

Bernie -- "Keep doing what you're doing"

You really seem to think Clinton might be indicted before this is all over with. What do you think the odds are?

No I've said it's a chance but that I don't think the Obama Justice Department goes through with it.

I do think the FBI wants her skewered.

If Trump doesn't get the GOP nomination, could he run Third-party and screw up everything split the GOP vote?

He pledged not to do that. Signed a doc and everything.

That said, Trump is a liar and a con artist. So anything goes. He's currently suing over his loss in Iowa, the big baby.

Do you think Doug is legit this time around or is he going to double-cross Frank?

shhhh no HOC references! I'm only halfway through season 2!

What is the coming of age ritual that all wannabe political scientists have to go through?

Do you mean political scientists (those are mostly professors, I think) or political staffers?

I've always said you're not a true political operative until you've pulled off the highway to pee into an Iowa cornfield.

I've always said you're not a true political operative until you've pulled off the highway to pee into an Iowa cornfield.

So, where would that place those of us who farm and do this on a regular basis?

That would make you a farmer, unless I'm missing something

I'd hate to see a Cruz or Trump presidency. As a result, I just donated a small amount to Rubio, in the hopes that the Republicans give me SOMEONE I wouldn't hate in office. How often does the 'reasonable' candidate win out when there are two nutjobs ahead of him in the primary?

I don't think either Cruz or Trump have a good chance of winning. That said, stranger things have happened.

Do you think this could've been Ron Paul's year to win? Obviously Rand was in the mix but I think Ron's much more charismatic.

No. He had his chance. And his centerpiece, "no more military spending!" is at odds with a GOP base that is now very worried about ISIS, Russia, China, and cybersecurity.

Under what conditions should Bloomberg throw his hat in as a third party candidate, and what impact would it have as a potential spoiler given his political history with both parties?

Good question... not sure. I don't think he's very popular with either party. A Ross Perot, this would not be.

How much down time did you have during presidential campaigns? It seems like each and every employee is constantly on the go.

None.

I mean, zero. Blackberry (this was a few years ago) when I woke up, blackberry when I went to sleep.

Ignorant Obama supporter here. Why do so many people hate on Obama?

It happens. 8 years in office. You have to make decisions. Your supporters tire of you and your opponents have made you out to be the devil.

George W. Bush was hated just as much, if not more, in 07-08. But he's recovered now that he's out of office. Favorability's gone up. Same will happen with Obama.

Trump vs Bernie who wins?

Election:
Fist Fight:
Marathon:

love it

Trump (ugh) Trump (double ugh) Trump (triple ugh)

What do you think the chances are that Bloomberg will join the race last minute?

I honestly don't know. He floated the trial balloon and it went over like it was full of lead.

That said, the guy is kind of self-righteous and believes his own bullshit. So who knows?

Running for Prez raises your profile and gets you mentioned in the media. It's appealing to many for that reason. Look at all those GOP candidates like Santorum and Bachman et al who are clearly running for Fox News contracts

Not sure if this question will make sense, but how much has soft money contributions (a la Citizens United) warped this election vs. previous? What are some tell-tale signs we should look for that you see as overtly soft money driven?

My guess is the Repubs have totally folded and will take money from just about anywhere, which might explain the wacky spectrum of candidates they have. But I'm definitely no expert.

how much has soft money contributions (a la Citizens United) warped this election vs. previous

It makes perfect sense, no worries.

Y'know... I get all the concern about PACs and Super PACs. But uh... look at Hillary Clinton. Has outraised everyone and she barely won Iowa, a supposedly safe state for her.

Jeb Bush raised over $100 million for his superpac and he's in the middle of the pack poll-wise.

Democrats take just as much money from special interests as Republicans. In fact they raised about 30% more in 2012.

So do you think that injecting more money into political campaigns has had no effect on the candidate outcomes? Or has it simply raised the bar for less well known politicians?

No... it definitely helps. Campaigns don't quit, they run out of money.

I just don't think that it has the huge effect that people think it does.

Do you think the current system of election is the best possible system of governance? If not, what would you change about it?

I love our broke, dysfunctional system. I love the electoral college and the strategy that goes with. I love that states still get a big vote in the process. I love civics and this amazing experiment in democracy.

It's like Churchill said... democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.

Leading up to the 2012 election, 538 showed repeatedly that Obama led Romney convincingly. During the same time, 95% of polls from republican-aligned outlets reported an easy Romney victory.

What causes such a discrepancy, and are there any red flags that something similar will occur/is occurring during this election?

Not quite -- Gallup and Rasmussen, two gold standards for polling, and Romney +1.

Polling is getting really hard to do now. Fewer people use landlines and even fewer use phones to communicate. Gallup just got out of the horserace altogether -- said they couldn't do it with confidence anymore.

I saw you answer a question about Ted Cruz earlier, but could you go more in depth about why he is a sleeze ball? As a conservative from Texas, I have watched the 6th and 7th GOP debates and love every answer he gives. He seems to have everything together and comes across as more wise than the others. What evidence is there that he is full of it?

Side note, I will vote for whoever I think is the best candidate, whether Republican or Democrat. He just caught my eye, but I don't want to be duped by a con artist.

Best example is the way he sold people that shutting down the government would stop Obamacare. It failed. No surprise there.

He makes promises like this all the time. All talk, no results. People need to start holding him accountable for all the failed promises.

I've seen news comments suggesting that the Sanders campaign staff, and probably Bernie himself acknowledge that they're not going to win the nomination. If that's true then what is the smart political move for Bernie?

Can he force Hilary to make him the VP candidate? Should he try for a cabinet post? The thought of him as Treasury Secretary makes me smile.

I hope his staff isn't saying that, that's a very dumb thing to do.

Hillary wouldn't make him the VP because he doesn't have the same appeal in a general election that he does in a primary. You want someone steady and experienced as Veep -- think Biden or Cheney here.

Hello and thanks for doing this AMA! Super interesting stuff!

I am a former HOR staffer at a district office, now in law school. I am still really interested in getting back into the government side of the law but I would only want to if I could make a jump to The Hill. How did you get to where you are? Would you recommend that life aka would you do it all over again if you could?

Its quite the jump from Texas to DC haha

Get in as soon as you can and be prepared to work! You can work upwards quickly. Call your Congressional office and meet with a staffer there. They want to help you. Just get your damn foot in the door -- you'll start low for someone with a JD, but you will advance quick if you work hard.

Good luck! I love these questions