I’m Andy Andres, professor at Boston University’s College of General Studies and expert on the science of baseball. Ask me anything about Major League Baseball, including the crackdown on pitchers using “sticky stuff”, sabermetrics, and the playoffs.

Does the Billy Beane ‘Moneyball’ approach still work for major league teams?

Absolutely, sabermetrics has an imbedded seat in the MLB front offices, it is not going away!

'Moneyball' is just using information to guide your decisions and not letting your own bias guide your decisions. There will always be Moneyball.

Yes, baseball analytics and data science are here to stay!

Testing, testing ...

​

Is this thing on?

So it looks like spin rate is back on the rise, especially in the postseason. Is it reasonable to assume that sticky stuff is in use again?

I think that is a reasonable assumption. I will try and share a graph with you on the daily average four seam fastball spin rates (including playoffs).

Here is a link to the FF Spin data for 2021: https://imgur.com/a/PcK0A2d

I took your MOOC on edX to help me learn SQL! Thank you for presenting SQL in such an interesting format. I really enjoyed the course.

I heard recently, on a Bill Simmons podcast or something of the sort, that the idea of analytics resulting in major shifts (no pun intended) in the game in the near future is not likely and that any changes via analytics would come in much smaller forms than what we have seen recently.

Where do you see the next frontier in analytics going and how do you see that shaping the game going forward? And do you think any part of the old way of thinking will return to baseball (300+ IP starters, small ball, reduction in shifts) naturally as time goes on?

I also have the idea that MLB should push fences back to decrease the reliance on HR's and increase exciting plays (Triples, Doubles, Hit and Runs). Obviously this would be costly and home runs pay the bills, but do you think that is a feasible way to return action to MLB?

I think the return to 300 IP is forever gone. Pitchers just pitch better in shorter stints, shorter outings. So not going back to the old school here!

Increasing the size of the playing field will reduce HR, but I doubt it changes how batters are swinging now (and being trained to swing by coaches, etc.). I think that training would still be in place with the fences back.

And I think the net frontier, the next "Moneyball" is the expansion of data scienec in Player Development as described by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik in "The MVP Machine"

Sweeeeeet Caroline.....Any predictions for the fate of the Red Sox?

Baa, Baa, Baa!!

I think the ALCS is a coin flip now, either team could win.

So 50% chance for the red Sox to win the ALCS, 25%, or so, to win the World Series!

What do you think about the push in neuroscience research in baseball? Seems like the new sabermetrics

Applying neuroscience to sports, surely in baseball, has been growing. The growth of using neuroscience seems to be in Player Development, esp. as a tool to train players in various elements of the game. It also helps in evaluating players, measuring various skills that seem to matter in baseball.

Here is a link to an article by Gordon Edes from 2014 about Mookie Betts and the use of neuroscience testing by the Red Sox:

https://www.espn.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/35236/weird-science-no-player-evaluation-tools

That's exactly what OP was asking about.

Edit: Mookie Betts scored off the charts in his ability to discern pitches using a neuroscience based graphic interface. It tested hand eye coordination and he excelled at that too. The Red Sox saw a huge upside to his brain's ability to make the right decisions in baseball. His lowest WAR for them was 5.4 or something.

This was close to a decade ago though, in 2011. I wonder how neuroscience has progressed in baseball, too.

OP? Not sure I know who you are talking about!

OP stands for “Original Poster,” which in this case would be you! 😂

TY!

I just read the book entitled “The Performance Cortex: how neuroscience is redefining athletic genius”

Pretty interesting stuff and baseball has embraced it the most

Yes, a book I recommend!

It certainly has progressed -- there are many outside companies selling ever-improving training technologies to help batters better recognize pitch types, pitch locations, etc.

What are your thoughts on the mechanics of "violent" swings? There are players that use those consistently (I'm thinking of Bo Bichette in particular if my username wasn't a clue). How do players manage the mechanics of those swings while avoiding injury?

I am not sure if any coach would change a swing that works (where a batter makes great contact), if it causes no injury.

Bat speed really matters, it improves exit velocity with improves the chances of better outcomes on offense.

how weather impacts a pitched ball’s flight

tough to control the weather outdoors, but is there anything teams in domed stadiums can do to the conditions in the park to affect pitches to their advantage?

I have not heard of anything being done in domed stadiums, but a friend reminded me that there was strange airflow towards home plate in the old Humphrydome in MN. So I guess it is possible.

I have no reference, but it may be worth looking up yourself!

what do you think is the net 'grey area' (i.e. something not currently against the rules, but only because no one has thought of using it yet) that will be exploited to gain an advantage?

The search for "New" PEDs will always continue, the incentives are just aligned that way -- athletes want to win, and many will try just about anything to improve.

One prediction, but just that, pure speculation on my part, is the improved understanding of how to use IGF-1 to enhance power and strength in athletes.

When is baseball going to actually speed up? 4 hours for a game even with the new rules….it is terrible.

I am with you, I hope the game speeds up, mainly for the increased interest it would bring to the game. More balls in play, less pitches per plate appearance, etc.

Is there any scientific thesis on why Baseball is that huge in some parts of the world (like the US) and pretty unpopular in other parts? If not, what are your thoughts on it?

I think the history of the game around the world co-insides with American Expansion. But other experts more interested in baseball history know more about this that I do!

Not the guy you asked, but in a lot of the world where baseball isn't as popular, they already have a similar sport that is popular (cricket).

To piggy back off both of these answers:

It absolutely has to do with American expansion.

The cricket part is mostly correct, but overlooks the common system of spread: colonial influence. Cricket became popular there because the British took it there. If the British were already there, America probably wasn’t trying to exude their influence on the place.

Japan, China, and Korea exploded baseball after the war, during American occupation.

The Spanish American war started because the US was trying to protect their interests and influence in Cuba.

After the revolution in Cuba, sugar cane production for the United States moved to the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico.

Thanks for a great answer, this aligns with my knowledge of the game!

In most parts of Europe it's probably soccer. I'm in Germany, we do have a few baseball clubs and I guess American football is about to become more popular.

As in the amazing growth in football analytics (not the NFL, I am referring to real football), fun to see this!

The increase in cricket data science has been fun to see!

How do you feel about the umpire scorecards? Accurate methodology? Why are the braves getting shafted with only 1 advantage in all of their playoff games?

Ump Scorecards are fine, but various ones I have seen can be improved (I have not seen them all!)

The accuracy of the flight path of the ball is great though. Trust in Statcast (Pitch FX, Trackman, and Hawkeye) getting to right!!

I don't mean to be rude, but your answer is what I would expect from any novice. Umpire scorecards are huge among fans right now. It's a specific website with that produces ratings for home plate umps in each game. What is the problem with their analyses? How would you improve it? Will you please address my question about the Braves?

Edit: typo

As far as the Braves go, I am not aware of the bias against them by the umpires, but I will take you word for it.

As for umpire scorecards, I am glad they are so popular, and I am very familiar with one site in particular that seems very popular on twitter. It is a great addition to the discussion of baseball, the discussion of umpiring, the discussion of future changes to calling the strike zone automatically.

Note that there are other ways online to see and discuss umpire performance. I

Thanks for the reply.

1) One rule you would add/One rule you would remove from MLB

2) Also, is there any research into play style/variety by country and how that impacts the game. Watching the Olympics this year and the WBC in years past, it was interesting to see the different styles of the game going head to head. I'd imagine there are a few things to be learned from these other leagues and vice versa?

Add: easiest would be the robot umpires, harder to implement would be changes in the balls, strikes, fouls - I really like the idea you are our on your 2nd foul ball, with two strikes. A crazy heretical thought, but I still like experimenting with these kind of rules changes.

Remove -- this is harder. I honestly cannot think of anything right now!

Does anyone here want to speculate on rules they would like to remove from MLB?

Why is 90 feet between the bases the closest to perfection man will ever achieve?

This is a great question, and I have no answer.

It does seem perfect for the game doesn't it?!?!

Although I should note that in the Arizona Fall League this year (playing right now!), they are experimenting with larger bases, shortening the effective distance between bases (maybe this means more steals?).

But the center of these larger bases is still 90 ft from the adjacent bases, that has nto changed, the bases are larger though

Interesting.

The question stems from an old Red Smith quote that's probably 70 years old. It's amazing how true it still is.

Yes, pretty amazing!

But we might have a confirmation bias due to loving the game of baseball so much!

How could the Rockies leverage their unique ballpark to give themselves an advantage?

This is a great question -- the humidor has changed run scoring in Coors field. I am not sure how to leverage the slightly heavier ball (due to water weight from the humidor) and reduced air density (due to altitude) into better pitcher performance, better pitcher selection (more power pitchers, more finesse pitchers, etc.)

Which teams have the best analytics approach/front office staff in your opinion?

I think the top three are the Yankees, Dodgers, and Rays. Other teams are great also!

Do you think three true outcomes will continue to affect the hitting approach of teams or do you think teams will start to return to a balance of TTO and contact hitting?

The league contact rate this year has been the second lowest in the last 20 years, but it did improve from 2020 (the worst in the last 20 years).

So maybe we are seeing a trend toward more contact in MLB. Or maybe the 2021 improvment is just noise. More time will tell.

defensive shifting - what do you think is the future? the idea was always that giving a single to schwarber to third base side is better but i never really understood that statistically.

is legislation the solution or is teaching your hitters to hit away from the shift the solution?

One reaction to defensive shifting has been to train batters to change their swing path to generate more fly balls. This helps "beat" the shift.

As for the future, there may be some small changes in actual defensive player placement as teams learn more about their own personnel (pitchers strengths and pitch types, and defenders abilities, etc.) and the opponents batted ball profile.

I think this is a great development in the game, and I wish they do not legislate rules that do not allow shifting to take place.

I’ve noticed that both the Red Sox and the Astros have really tightened their strike zones, to the point where they hardly give chase. The runs scored in this series and the batting averages of the players are crazy high too.

The pitch that is still getting most batters is the upstairs fastball. That in mind, do you think there’s a chance both teams have found a way to get indications of the incoming pitch? We know who leads Boston and the Houston core is the same from the 2017 season.

I do not think there is much sign stealing going on in this series. I think it is two strong offensive teams playing the ALCS (HOU #1, BOS #5).

Fair enough. On that same note, do you think the Astros sign stealing was actually a scandal? Or was their crime spoiling an honor amongst thieves and/ or forcing the MLB to deal with an aspect of the game they want to remain under the table (Sign stealing as a whole)?

I know that’s not what you’re here to discuss, so please feel free to decline.

I think the Astros got caught, and they paid the penalty. Other teams were trying to steal signs also, in various ways, and they likely found religion, and stopped whatever they were doing.

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Simple solution to the problem, just create a private comms network btwn the catcher, pitcher, and pitching coach. Let them call the pitches without interference, speed the game up!

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Simple!

I loved MB and it transformed how I think about many things, not just baseball..say like college admissions or hiring.

I often though it could be used at little league level. Coaches usually take a traditional approach to a line up. 1,2,3 then cleanup. With a three year spread the young guys mostly walked, my thought was you spread those who CAN hit between the little ones whose OBA is decent. At some point they used to record every pitch. I don’t know tat anyone was smart w Pugh to look at that data. Do you think there is merit on that? Could this be used by HS coaches to better understand the talent pool coming from the feeder programs?

I think it is generally best to put your best OBP players at the top of the order (and worst OBP at the bottom of the batting order), regardless of the level being played. You create less outs this way, and less outs are always a good thing in the game.

Thanks and I am honored. Any thoughts on the other applications for DS like college admissions or hiring.
I just started following but if you haven’t your should recommend the hidden game of baseball circa 1985. I’m from Chocago and they nailed the value of Ron Santo and the dearth of value from Andres Dawson.
I saw comments on the soft stuff there is research being done on group dynamics (ie chemistry). by Katerina Bezrukova and apparently many others. I love this stuff and as we learn more they will do different thing and we will perceive it differently.

Katerina Bezrukova

Thank you for this recommendation! I will certainly put this research on my "To Read" list!

As for application of DS, I say all the time that DS will improve decision making in **any** endeavor -- if it can work in sports, it can work in HR and university admissions!

This is slightly off topic but I think you’re the perfect person to ask. I’m applying to colleges now and planning on starting in the Fall of 2022. I’m looking to major in biomedical engineering but I’d love to find a link between data science and that. Do you know of any general classes I should look at? Obviously where I go won’t have the same classes that BU, but I mean just in a broad sense, what should I be looking at. I’m pretty into data science and statistics and want to learn more but I don’t know if it’s feasible with what I want to major in. Thanks!

I think you named the important courses for a DS major or minor, even if you are taking the major in BioMed Engineering -- stats to learn modeling and machine learning, computer science to learn how to program (DS requires your own ability to do your own coding).

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Good luck in your studies!!!

Thanks for the response. I have a follow up question if you don’t mind.

What is the role of machine learning in baseball right now and what do you think that role will be in the future?

ML is very important in baseball analytics and sports analytics. And the importance of ML will only continue to grow!

High school Physics / Math suggests that 45^o is the ideal launch angle for distance for a home run. How close is the measured angle, and if there's any difference what accounts for it?

45 degrees is best is when there is no friction on the object, and the shape of the object does not interfere with flight, just in the presence of the force of gravity.

Because baseballs in the game defy these assumptions, it turns out the best angle for a home run is not 45 degrees , but about 25-30 degrees. This has to do with backspin that is mostly the case with home runs, the backspin keeps the ball in the air longer (Magnus force) so it can fly farther.

I hope that helps!

What do you think of the use of the opener? Is it better or worse than using a traditional starter?

I like it because it involves using data science to make better decisions on how to win the game. Better living through data!

I know I'm tardy to the party but I don't understand why Total Bases is not the most important offensive metric. OPS seems to be all the rage but it fails to reward players for durability and stolen bases. Thoughts?

Total Bases is a great number to look at! Total bases is a counting stat, so that means you are putting too much emphasis on full time play, rather than batting performance. Would you rather have Ozzie Albies or Aaron Judge on your team? Albies was top 10 in TB, #66 in OPS, Judge was top 10 in OPS, #19 in TB. There are other examples.

Bottom line, I prefer OPS as it correlates better with Team Runs Scored.

Do the kids get excited when you tell them you are a brofesor of general studies?

Being a brofesor of anything gets people excited!

My name is Andy as well (technically it’s Andrew but people call me Andy) I assume like yourself, I struggle on if I should tell people to call me “Andy” or “Andrew”. As a fellow Andy, what do you believe are the pros and cons of each?

My name is Andres, and I go by Andy because Andres is hard to say for most people. Also this guy's names are my name. Weird.

See the above, my nickname comes from my last name!! And yes, I agree it is weird!

Your actual given name sometimes matters, in more formal settings.

But I like the name Andy, just like you.

My formal name is Leonard! But I go by Andy as a nick name, it comes from my last name.

Jim Brockmire, ever heard of him? He’s got a podcast that’s pretty good, but he seems to be obsessed with Hank Azaria. It’s a little weird

I really like Jim Brockmire! Very funny!

Does height have a verifiable impact on pitching velocity? I know there are guys like Pedro Martinez and Time Lincecum that are "short" but had really good velocity, but are they - as in the case of Lincecum - truly freakish?

That is a testable statement. We can test if fastball pitching speed is correlated with height. I have noted it as a future assignment for my students!

But there is a bias in that scouts, coaches, and talent evaluators, at all levels, really like tall pitchers. This might be a selection against shorter players becoming pitchers, but that is just a guess on my part.

Why did it take so long for first base coaches to decide to wear helmets?

I agree, it took too long!

**Unfortunately**, it took the death of a minor league base coach in 2007 for MLB to change the rules.

**And it was not until 1971** that MLB made it a rule that batters had to wear helmets. Seems crazy to me that it took so long, in both cases.

Do you have any opinions on the pitch clock? Either on the proposed ideas that are out there right now or your own thoughts about how/why it should/should not be implemented?

I do think it will speed up the game, and I do think shorter games are good for the long term "health" of MLB. So I do think it is coming! Not sure exactly when, but soon.

As far as the exact implementation, we will see -- lots of experimentation going on right now in the AFL on the pitch clock, lots of Automatic Balls and Strikes being called. Once the data is collected from that league and other leagues, I think a fair pitch clock that MLB pitchers can live with will be in place.

Dawg we need a BATTER’S clock. Most pitchers move pretty quickly, the Human Rain Delay Pedro Baez and a few other guys are slow but the amount of batters who BETWEEN EVERY PITCH: step outta the box, tap the bat all over, take a few practice swings, adjust their batting gloves

Like I love Justin Turner but he’s a modern example of this. Nomad Garciaparra was a prime offender back in his day

The time between pitches, I would think is more often controlled by the batter.

PERHAPS THERE ARE ANALYTICS FOR THIS? Average pitches per minute?

Every pitch is time stamped, so this is measurable and testable.

Along with the pitch clock, the umpire can call and Automatic ball on a player who steps out too much. I have not heard of a batter's clock, just the umpires calling Auto Strikes.

Can the massive increase of pitching injuries just be attributed to increase in velocity or do you think pitching mechanics play a role?

There also might be more IL stints due to roster strategies employed by teams, so make sure that your claim of "massive increase" is measuring the right thing, like with like, in other words.

If you were commissioner, what changes would you make?

I would be really focusing on lowering the time of game, and one thing I would do is experiment with a larger strike zone, experiment with how a game with 3 balls for a walk, instead of four would look like -- various changes like that.

Interesting. Larger strike zone is probably a very unpopular opinion. Maybe the ump last night is just progressive 😂

Good point about Laz Diaz! His strike zone was large at times!

But I agree, I have floated the idea of a larger strike to many baseball fans, and not too many people like it.

I have floated the idea of a larger strike to many baseball fans, and not too many people like it.

I think a lot of people don't like the already increased rate of strikeouts. If you expanded the zone some pitchers would become almost unhittable

You might be right, but it could also lead to more swings, and more balls in play.

That is why I favor an experiment, where a pro league expands the zone to see the result.

Are we ever going to see robot umpires behind the plate?

I think robot umpires are coming within a few years. There is too much pressure to get these calls correct, and the technology to accurately call the balls and strikes is very much in place.

I might be the only one in the world dreading that day

You are not alone, there will be some outcry when this happens!

Do you think we will ever have a way to consistently teach players how to reliably throw a knuckleball?

Throwing this pitch is hard, I do know lots of baseball players fool around trying to prefect this pitch though. It is very hard to throw a baseball with low spin, and the consequences when you cannot do this are too high (too risky to not throw the pitch well)

[deleted]

That is a testable question, but publicly available databases do not have track pitching from the stretch. If you know a pitch always pitches from the stretch only when there are man on base, you could test this question.

What is the biggest issue with robot umpires right now? Do you think they will be a step in the right direction for the MLB?

Yes, I am a fan of robot umpires. Then there is no controversy in important games, like last nights game at Fenway.

Do you think we’ve reached the maximum possible mph that a pitcher can throw a baseball? Or will someone throw 107mph+ in the future?

Anytime people have speculated about the absolute limits to human performance, humans exceed those limits (cue the story of the 4 minute mile, etc.)

So yes, I suspect we will see someone throw 107 mph someday

Do some teams take modern analytics too far in your opinion? Like the Yankees who went so far down the road of homerun hitting that they couldn't get reliable contact?

Or are the Yankees actually behind on analytics while teams such as the Red Sox and Rays run circles around them?

The Yankees are most certainly NOT behind in analytics, they are among the best!!

As far as different teams and their approaches to lineup construct/roster construction, there are lots of factors that go into these decisions.

Different teams have different models of performance, different models on how to win the game, therefore not all decisions of team, using their best data science, are the same!

Interesting... so analytically, you're better off having a lineup full of homerun hitters even if they bat .225 and strikeout 30% of the time vs. say a Ned Yost Royals lineup that relies on base hits, aggressive baserunning and walks

It would be fun to simulate this!

I suspect the outcome would be better if you had HR hitters throughout your lineup. In other words, a would love to have a lineup of nine Aaron Judges over a lineup of nine Willie Wilsons.

What if MLB were to allow the sticky stuff, and lower the mound?

Could that keep the pitchers from getting an advantage, make enforcement easier, and allow pitchers a bit more control?

I like experimenting with lowering the mound, those outcomes would be cool to see!

As far as the sticky stuff, I think not too many people would be OK with allowing it. The rule for foreign substances on the ball has been in place since 1934, and I think changing that is a high bar!

when will the mariners dought end, in your opinion?

Soon I think, there are a lot of pieces that might be helpful soon, esp. Julio Rodriguez -- he looks like the next great rookie!

Hi AndyAndresBU, your post has been removed because:

You have not provided adequate proof within a reasonable amount of time. Please see the /r/IAmA sidebar for posting guidelines. Thank you!

Please contact the mods if you need further assistance

Here is proof in the original post:

https://i.redd.it/jy8tbvxlt8u71.png

And my instagram post:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CU7y2ebg5ei/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Sorry about the confusion the image was not showing up for me.

It has been re-approved, thanks.

OK, TY!

Which teams do u feel are on the cutting edge in terms of their scientific approach to baseball?

AFAIK, the top teams using performance science and data science are the Rays, Yankees, and Dodgers. Close behind are the Cubs, Red Sox, Astros, Giants, Brewers, Indians, and plenty others I cannot recall right now.

Why was this removed?

Not sure, I think it is back now!

Let's not give baseball more importance thank it actually deserves. Have you wondered what, if by some magic baseball will sudendly disapear one day, what humanity will do? Nothing, it will continue right on, it will not skip a bit.

Yes, this is certainly correct, as with all entertainment, if it is gone, humanity marches on and on ...

But there are many of us who really love this game, enjoy it, and like to observe and study the nuances and particulars of the game itself.

When will MLB implement a salary cap? The luxury tax does nothing to help my "Guardians" become competitive. (hate that name)

I, for one, like the name for the Cleveland team!! Go Guardians!!

But I am sure the Salary Cap will be put on the table to be discussed by the owners and players when they start negotiating the new Collective Bargaining Agreement in Dec - this is when the current CBA will be finished.

It is not clear when though. I think it may take many years and much discussion!

Y’all shoulda gone back to the Spiders. Or, alternatively, the entire city of Cleveland should be evacuated

I also like Spiders as a name, but I prefer the Guardians. And I love Cleveland! It is a great city!

Spiders was my choice too. I personally enacted the evacuation plan about 30 years ago. Currently living in FL, but still suffer from the mental illness of being a Cleveland sports fan. Pray for me.

Good answer!

Based on advanced stats, should my favorite player, Max Muncy, have been a first ballot all-star this season? What are the best stats to look at for comparing offensive performance?

For offense I like wRC+, which can be seen in fangraphs.com.

Max Muncy was tied for 12th highest wRC+ in 2021, so he had a great year!!

Guess who was first in wRC+ in 2021?

I'm going to guess Bryce Harper or Juan Soto

Harper!