Hi! I'm Katia Dmitrieva, an economics reporter at Bloomberg News in Washington, DC. Fears are growing that the U.S. is headed towards a recession, something that comes up daily in my interviews and work. AMA!
It started about a year ago: analysts began talking about a recession after a labor-market report -- jobless claims -- bumped up slightly, flashing yellow. Then there were signs that the growth-boosting effect of Republican-backed tax cuts were starting to fade. Spooking investors further were declines in key indicators of factory activity, amid President Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods and a global manufacturing slump.
Portions of the Treasury yield curve inverted, usually a harbinger of recession, and the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates in hopes of protecting the expansion. And since then, it's being discussed by policy makers, economists, academics and everyone at the water cooler.
Here are some stories to catch you up:
Recession risks are global https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-10/big-reads-on-economics-as-global-recession-worries-mount
The latest Bloomberg survey shows economists expect a contraction starting in 2021, though GM strike could skew data to the downside, making it seem closer https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-11/gm-strike-hits-broader-economy-skewing-recession-forecast-data
Meanwhile the US consumer is holding up for now- and they make up the majority of the economy... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-17/healthy-consumers-to-help-u-s-economy-endure-ailing-factories
...while tariffs continue to take a bite out of manufacturing and investment https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-17/trade-blamed-as-manufacturers-plan-2020-spending-cuts-fed-says
And recession indicators remain mixed https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-economic-recession-tracker/?terminal=true
I'll be answering your questions from 1pm to 2pm EST. AMA!
UPDATE: Thank you everyone! There were some really interesting, smart questions and I wish I could have gotten to more. Please feel free to email me or tweet @KatiaDmi