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Bismar736 karma

Given that forecasting, econometrics, and basic statistics consistently works on past data to try to come to conclusions about the present and future, how do you reconcile compounding error in your predictions since the present isn't the past (and people change their minds ala "animal spirits")?

Do you ever question the methods and methodology of using statistics designed for interpolation for extrapolation?

Being more in touch with the context of reality as part of a news organization, do you have any suggestions for academics or courses being taught at universities? Is there anything you wish was stressed more in the field or impressed upon the next generation of economists?