I investigate oil companies that manipulate gasoline and oil prices. I track oil tankers at sea, deal with whistle blowers, research Standard Oil, and have gone undercover at industry conferences. AMA!

have you encountered any weird intimidation tactics in the course of your research?

I have never been intimidated during my research into oil. I try not to focus on worrying about being in danger from this work. I always thought it was more likely that they would listen-in on me rather than do anything else. I know how to search for bugs, and I try to be vigilant about my surroundings, but the truth is, if someone wanted to hurt me, there isn’t a lot that I could do. It’s something I have thought about, but I try not to dwell on it. I hope this helps you understand my mindset

How are gas prices not affected at all by the plummeting price of oil?

They are usually - but I find not enough. The saying goes "rise like a rocket, fall like a feather", which refers to how gasoline markets jump at any sign of trouble, but are very resistant to pressures that would lower the price of gasoline.

You've hit on a crucial part of my analysis.

Here's a short documentary that I'm featured in that talks about gasoline market manipulation. I've linked to the portion where I am introduced: https://youtu.be/4dQpQhI50JE?t=2m16s

As someone about to graduate from a criminal intelligence analysis program, can you rattle off the names of a few agencies that hire for this kind of work? It sounds like you're doing what I want to be doing; consuming data and looking for behaviour in contravention of regulation.

The FTC and FBI have jobs investigating price fixing, as well as any state's Attorneys General. But as far as I know, there isn't anyone else focusing on the oil markets and their fairness - with no profit motive in mind.

Is Standard Oil still a thing?

Actually yes - Chevron still owns one "Standard oil" station in each place they operate. It's surreal seeing the station, see the photo at this blog (not my blog): https://thesledgehammer.wordpress.com/2009/02/18/a-not-so-standard-chevron-station/

They do this to retain the trademark. Chevron is the remnant of Standard Oil that was based in California.

Very Interesting

When Standard Oil was split up, Exxon was Standard Oil of New Jersey, and Mobil was Standard of New York.

Of course now the companies have 'remerged'

Hi there!

Have you primarily done this research in your free time?

What do you plan to do with the information you've discovered?

What's the most surprising, positive information you've learned?

1) No I have done this as my job since 2015. 2) When I find information I usually write a report/memo and circulate it to reporters, oil experts, and then try and push regulators/politicians to act by making the information public.

As for positive information, it's usually negative information that makes me think people are cheating the US markets. I guess the fact that whistle blowers come forward means that good people are everywhere.

Do you work for the government, media or some other kind of group?

edit: I just saw your video link, that you work for consumerwatchdog.org. This is really cool work! I love financial or corporate detective work.

I worked for Consumer Watchdog, but left in 2017 to pursue my own research. This is my passion and I'm lucky to do something I love.

When you say you investigate price manipulation - what exactly does that entail?

Are you tracking ships AIS? What are you looking for - ie what makes you think something strange is occurring?

Also, I saw you couldn’t get your project off the ground - had you thought about trying to partner with Genscape or were they even a direct competition to your idea?

For anyone who is interested in tracking the oil industry - what are your favorite news sites, blogs, etc?

Thanks!

Thanks for these questions - I analyze wholesale prices, both the price charged to gas station owners, and the price charged between oil companies. I watch the ships to see if they are purposely moving to 'trick' a market.

As for oil industry info - I get my information straight from oil sources: I love Oil and Gas This Week podcast, oilprice.com, reuters, bloomberg, any business news source really.

Here's a copy-paste from a different post about AIS & ship movements:

1) Do I use AIS tracking? Yes, I use AIS tracking to monitor the vessels. AIS trackers are on all commercial ships. the data is gathered by AIS but is viewed through third party services. Anyone can check out all the ships on the ocean at [marinetraffic.com](www.marinetraffic.com) or [vesselfinder.com](www.vesselfinder.com). In order to see ship history you have to pay a higher fee.

Most of my experience has been using Bloomberg's ship tracking software on their Bloomberg Terminal program. It's expensive, but the best in the business. You can see any ship, and anywhere it's ever been in its history.

2) What kind of patterns do I look for? Tankers can manipulate markets in a variety of ways. The most important thing is whether there is adequate competition in the market. For example, the United States West Coast has only a few companies, and thus they have a huge amount of control over local commodity markets.

Oftentimes a ship will put a false heading into their public movement profile via AIS. For example, a tanker will say they are heading to Los Angeles, when really they are going to cross through the Panama Canal. Just the rumor of an incoming ship can impact regional prices.

Sometimes companies try to lower the price right before they are scheduled to make a big purchase. For example, Chevron knows it is making a big purchase in the afternoon, so they trick the market into thinking a bunch of oil or gasoline tankers are on the way. The price will fall, then they make their big purchase and save themselves a fortune, when really they created a false wave of imports.

Another tactic is showing up in a port with an expected shipment, and then simply not completing the shipment and leaving, making the regional price of oil or gasoline skyrocket.

Is any of this legal?

A lot of it is blatantly illegal. Or it depends the attorney you speak to.

How does Bloomberg compare to VesselTracker/Genscape for AIS? Do you track refinery and storage operations too? If so, how?

If you are just interested in ships, Vesseltracker is the right option due to price. If you want to see everything happening, Bloomberg is a must. It tracks past refinery outages, as well as rumors of future outages. It has wholesale gasoline pricing data for specific companies, which is extremely important.

As far as storage operations, federal and state data is best for that. California does a good job of keeping track of gasoline in the state. The Federal government does a good job of total gasoline/oil supply numbers by region (not usually state specific).

Refinery operation & storage data is very important.

Sounds incredibly interesting, never had an idea this is going on.

Do you happen to know if similar practices exist in other markets, specifically Europe?

Definitely occurs in Europe, though I am not as well versed in their markets. A few years ago the EU raided BP, Statoil, and Platts HQs regarding price fixing. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/may/14/bp-shell-oil-price-rigging

Though charges never came through, I believe that's more likely due to regulatory capture, oil industry attorneys, and the ability to destroy crucial data/communications.

The story goes, My uncle works in Alaska for the govt after quitting a very lucrative position with BP (before the spill). He was apparently offered double by the govt as an accountant/lawyer searching for every single fine the govt can find. If he doesn’t find $XXM in fines while investigating, apparently he isn’t doing his job right.

Does this sound at all real, in terms of the pay grade the government can offer? Granted he gave up a life in Texas for the cold in AL but owns a plane and multiple houses. Can a govt position like that really outdo the Oil companies?

No. That sounds completely false.

I agree thank you. Now I have u/st999 to back me up next Christmas.

Great does that mean I'm invited?

Were there more government agencies doing this kind of research in the past? Is this a case of regulatory capture, or is it just something that the government has never prioritized? Have you noticed any changes to the EPA or FTC attention to these issues since the Trump Administration took power?

There was more interest by prior administrations, but not much. Obama started a "Gas price fixing task force" when prices reached near $5, but the task force was never heard from again after the initial press conference.

One thing to remember is that oil is almost always not competitive. Every market in the world has someone with some control - whether it is OPEC, a Nationalized oil company, or a private company with too much market power. Many who understand oil seem to have 'accepted' that it's easy to manipulate regional prices.

I saw your post in /r/mk and was very curious about Bloomberg's ship tracking software you mentioned.
1) What kind of information can you pull from each ship? Is it simply where it's heading or does it become more in depth with a ships ID, Company etc.
2) How are you able to identify which ships are oil tankers and which are general purpose cargo ships?

Thanks for the AMA, incredibly interesting

Thanks for asking - It's part of their Bloomberg Terminal product - which is essentially a computer with access to any piece of business information that exists. The Terminal was donated for my use on the gasoline project - it costs $24,000 a year to have one.

You can see any ship on the sea this moment at www.marinetraffic.com or vesselfinder.com

1) What kind of information can you pull from each ship? Is it simply where it's heading or does it become more in depth with a ships ID, Company etc. Each ship has detailed information, such as the name of the ship, the owner, the type of ship, the DWT, the heading, and even the draft.

What makes Bloomberg's data better than others is that you can see every ship's entire movement history, which is incredible.

Often I would cross-reference the ship movements with Customs data - which is also available via Bloomberg. This information provides detailed information if a shipment is from a foreign country - such as the exact oil product, who brought it, how much, by what ship, and when.

A major problem is finding who ACTUALLY owns the ship, as most companies use a shell corporation to own the tankers. ExxonMobil vessels are under the "SeaRiver Maritime" company, and each ship is called the "S/R ...." The Exxon Valdez was renamed the S/R mediterranean after the crash.

Chevron ships usually end in "Voyager", such as the Pegasus Voyager, or Polaris Voyager.

2) How are you able to identify which ships are oil tankers and which are general purpose cargo ships? I think the question above answered this - there is detailed information about each ship.

I analyze wholesale prices, both the price charged to gas station owners, and the price charged between oil companies

What is the difference between the 2, and how do you further conclude price fixing using these... rather than assuming they are normal supply chain profits

One is the 'spot price' where oil companies trade huge quantities of gasoline (like an oil tanker full/ ~200,000 gallons).

The other is the 'rack' where gas stations buy smaller quantities (~8,000 gallons).

Concluding price fixing requires a few things to line up. Usually having a whistle blower or other information is crucial. For example I'll hear from a contact that Chevron purchased all the available barrels of gasoline in California - spiking the price. And then I'll see the spot price fluctuate like crazy, and increase 60 cents in a day.

I usually look at that next to the 'rack' price, to see if companies are competing, or simply jumping to the highest available cost.

Another factor is whether companies charge THEIR OWN stations too much. Meaning they sell off extra gasoline to independent stations at a low price, but sell to the branded stations a higher cost. Because they are branded, they must accept whatever price the company offers. This is an easy way to inflate regional prices.

What sort of things could be done that would eliminate the manipulation? It seems like there are a lot of assumptions traders are making - like soon to arrive ships will unload their cargo, and then the ships don't, so then their bets that the oil would be cheap allow Chevron to get cheap oil. Uh, how do you set it up or change these markets so that they can't be manipulated?

Good question.

1) How to eliminate manipulation: complete transparency, which means data on pricing should be available to the public and regulators, not just private business. The services that sell pricing data have refused to sell to law enforcement.

Transparency in refinery operations, such as why they go down, and how much gasoline each company has in reserve, should be public. This would help traders keep the market in balance, and make them less able to 'trick' each other.

2) Make examples. What I mean is start trying cases against companies and sending traders to jail if they violate the rules. Send executives to jail if they try to manipulate markets. That will stop things pretty quick.

Is this just more undercover work?

Don't worry I'll keep quiet

Haha no............

Got to ask because of your unique and informed perspective, where can we expect the price of oil to go in the near future?

I try not to speculate on oil prices. I'd say most economists don't realize that oil is in more financial danger than they admit - which is one reason why companies manipulate prices. If law enforcement were to crack down, the industry would be hard pressed not to reshape significantly.

What sorts of tools do you use to perform your analysis? Massive spreadsheets? How complex are the formulae, or are you just using the power of human pattern recognition? How difficult is it really to spot "rule breakers" (for lack of a better term) and how frequently do you spot one?

The best tools were a Bloomberg Terminal, Excel, a world map, and whistle blowers.

The spreadsheets are large, but not necessary to use any program other than Excel. Usually its just my own pattern recognition. When I see something wrong in the data, then I reach out to sources in the industry, and check other vantage points - like where are the ships, what's the local gasoline supply, how are the refineries running?

If I had the resources I would hire analysts who could create more complex algorithms for checking data I don't have time to look over. That's the dream.

Thanks! And approx how many incidents did you report over the years?

EDIT - Years, not year. lol

Dozens of them, some with bigger response than others. Usually that entailed a press release, or a full report. I was involved in writing 5 or 6 reports over the last few years.

This is fascinating. Thanks for doing the ama!

Question: Do you think there is a way to create an algorithm that achieves what you are doing? Is it possible to aggregate customs data with real time AIS data and set up a list of red flags (ships being in one location too long, ships not following the course they said they were going to, etc). Or is spotting the manipulation something that is difficult to quantify and requires a human mind?

Keep up the good work holding corrupt companies accountable for their manipulation. Market manipulation and price gouging hurts everybody except the ones doing the manipulating and bringing it out in the open is awesome. You rock.

Thanks for these questions.

Yes I believe it's possible to create an algorithm that does MOST of what I do (but not all). There's a human aspect required for the whistleblower conversations/media work that can't be replicated.

I believe an algorithm could 'flag' certain ship movements that correlate with certain price movements - as long as you have the data for both. The algorithm could tell me there's something more to look at - and would be just a start, then I'd have to jump in to verify and investigate. But it would save a lot of time and be extremely helpful. It is definitely my goal to eventually have something like that.

This seems similar to Enron in some ways, any lessons that you've taken from that case?

Absolutely. People forget that Enron was a natural gas pipeline company before they started inventing electricity/natural gas trading platforms. Enron was run by oilmen, and many of them still work at major oil companies.

Just like oil companies do today, Enron shut down power plants to cause shortages (for oil companies they shut down refineries).

After the dust settled following the collapse of Enron, it turned out that most of Enron's competitors were doing the same exact things that Enron was!! https://www.forbes.com/2002/05/16/0516topnews.html

I believe eventually people will find it is just as rampant in the oil industry as it was in electricity/nat gas during the Enron years.

Also, it's a good example of regulators not stopping mergers - Enron was a merger of the two of the largest natural gas pipeline companies already in existence.

Fun fact: when they merged, they settled on the name Enteron, not realizing until after an embarrassing announcement that Enteron was a medical word for the digestive tract reaching from the mouth to the anus – made especially embarrassing since it was a natural gas pipeline company. They changed the name to Enron. (learned this in Kurt Eichenwald's book Conspiracy of Fools: A True Story)

Have you ever done any research in Kentucky? If so what did you discover?

I haven't specifically researched Kentucky - but have noticed their prices are usually on the lower end of the spectrum. Gulf coast has solid competition and thus low prices. The closer you get to the MidWest, the more funky things get. The US West Coast is bar far the most impacted market.

It depends where you are in the state. In Louisville and Norhern KY Marathon basically has a monopoly and the state sued them in 2015 though I haven’t heard much lately. Prices can often jump 30-50 cents at a time for no apparent reason before they slowly fall only to jump up again and repeat.

That's really interesting - I'm going to note that and look into it later. Thanks for providing this. This happens in many places in the country, where one company can control all the gasoline deliveries. In these cases, prices can be inflated anywhere from a few cents, to 50 cents a gallon - which adds up to HUGE costs/profits over the course of time.

Here is some basic info about the lawsuit https://insiderlouisville.com/business/in-lawsuit-attorney-general-alleges-marathon-monopoly-leads-to-higher-gas-prices/

Looks like an interesting case. Unfortunately Attorneys General often do this when they are running for office - then completely drop it after the election. It looks like this AG was running for Gov. at the time. I wish some AGs were in the field to do good, not just get to the next post.

Hi - extremely interesting AmA. I am curious if you could elaborate on what you mean by “The closer you get to the MidWest, the more funky things get”. I live in Minnesota and am wondering how price fixing in the oil industry impacts the upper midwest.

I should have been more specific. One of the places with very strange pricing patterns is Chicago - emanating from there, there is clearly a market competition problem.

I should give an overview on the US markets:

US West Coast is extremely volatile & has too few companies, leading to very high prices.

US Gulf Coast Many companies, and a lot of extra gasoline/oil lying around. Prices are low here.

US MidWest Market power problems similar to US West Coast, but only in major cities, especially Chicago. The most reports I receive outside of California of suspicious prices are from Chicago.

Atlantic Coast Similar to the US West Coast, but to a lesser degree. Companies use the same arguments about environmental regulations causing higher prices as they do in California. The further North along the Atlantic Coast, usually the worse prices get.

There is an unverified, yet eternally interesting correlation between state political lean and gasoline prices.

Hello!

What do you enjoy about the job, and what is rewarding? There is of course the 'justice served' feeling but that is true for any investigation/law enforcement job.

I love learning about infrastructure, and doing something that feels like it's on the forefront of undiscovered research. I like the 'david vs. goliath' aspect as well.

How much has the price of oil and gasoline been artificially inflated over the last 1, 5, 10, 15, and 20 year time frames? Thanks. 👍🏻

It's hard to quantify that exactly. In 2008 & 2012, during the gasoline price spikes that reached near $5, prices were heavily inflated. I don't want to put a specific amount, but if regulators had been worth their salt, people might be in jail.

Market manipulation often becomes rampant when crude oil prices crash - the companies need more profits and usually try and make up for it in the Downstream sector (refining)

Have you considered branching out to look at price manipulation and fixing in other commodities markets? In the 90's, ADM was fined millions of dollars for price fixing in the Corn Syrup and Lysine markets. The insider who blew the whistle on that price fixing alleged that such fixing was endemic across the entire agricultural commodities field but the larger allegations were never investigated.

How common to you think price fixing is within the oil industry?

I have thought about it - as far as why I focus on oil, it's bar far the most important commodity. The Lysine price-fixing situation is a good example: a huge story and prices were probably inflated about $250 million. Americans consumed 391 million gallons per day. An increase in gasoline prices by 5 cents across the nation amounts to $20 million per day, or $7 billion per year. I would say price fixing is extremely common, and is done as routine business.

Did you track the tankers from China and/or Russia delivering oil to North Korea?

No - I focus on private companies trying to manipulate prices. The China/NK oil shipment analysis is probably done by governments that are trying to maintain an effective embargo. Basically any ship that arrives in NK is suspicious - and they can pretty easily see where it came from, and where it picked up the oil.

Couple questions:

1. AFAIK futures price does not necessarily represent the true cash price that a producer pays for or sells crude oil for. How do you factor in actual cash price of the physical commodity and basis price into your analysis?

2. Have you looked at hedge fund involvement in the oil mkt? How can you conclude it is the oil majors profiting off these “swings” and not algos with hedge funds?

Thank you! Very interesting.

1) Futures for crude oil are traded at specific high volume locations, like New York on the NYMEX. I look mostly at regional spot markets, which often don't have a significant futures market.

Many deals are done for oil and gasoline, and only a few are publicly reported. One of the major issues is finding the true cost to companies for a commodity. For example, companies give huge discounts for long term deals, etc.

Because I'm looking at specific regional spot markets, the actual cash price is available.

2) Hedge funds impact oil prices in the larger, overall oil market (i.e. bets on benchmarks like Brent or WTI). Hedge funds are dealing with the larger movements of the crude oil markets usually. I look at actual deals on spot markets, as in ExxonMobil sold XXX barrels to Chevron at XXX time at XXX price at a specific location. Usually purchasing tankers-worth.

The other markets I look at are the wholesale prices charged to gas stations - again it's clear who the seller is, and the cash price.

Hedge funds are responsible for run-ups on crude oil, and whenever crude oil prices explode past $100, Hedge funds were likely to blame. Futures trading creates volatility, and funds make money on all the swings. I focus on the actual, cash deals.

Hope that helps.

Hi there your passions seems really Interesting sorry I don't have any better questions but I have two

1. Is that what you call a short bio?

2. What made you get into the oil industry

Haha sorry the bio was long. I'm not in the oil industry - I monitor it from outside. It's weird researching and analyzing something I'm not actually a part of.

In your opinion,does the fact that states receive tax revenue based on oil price make them stay hands-off? Why bite the hand that feeds them, after all.

I think it has more to do with the political power of the oil industry- either you don't want to make big oil angry, or you're already against them for climate change and don't need to attack them anymore.

There's a secondary issue within the environmental movement - many think high oil prices are good because it will force people toward clean energy. I think that is a harmful way of thinking that essentially only hurts poor people who won't be able to switch to an electric cars.

In conservative states, absolutely tax revenue and blind faith in the oil industry is a reason there is little oversight.

• Favorite food/best beverage?
• Music & pony preferences?
• Emacs or vim?

I love Hamburgers

Fruit juice is my favorite.

Music - Kamasi Washington right now

Emacs/vim - No comment

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Unfortunately, I don't know every piece of history about Standard Oil. I have focused my research on Standard Oil's pricing policies, and how the company was split up by the federal government. It was done recklessly, and has left many US oil markets with very little competition.

This is great, thanks!

What can each of us do to make sure that oil prices stay high? After all high oil prices reduces the number of cars on the road, puts less pollution in the air and actually saves lives.

High oil prices are not the goal - that punishes poor Americans. I believe we can transition to a clean energy economy without allowing oil companies to manipulate prices and make billions of dollars at consumer's expense.

It's easy for wealthy environmentalists to advocate for high oil prices - but the people who pay that cost are those who have no option to get cleaner energy infrastructure, or an electric car.

If we as a country decide that morally we want high oil prices, that should be done via a tax that is distributed to those most impacted by pollution. It shouldn't be that we simply allow the oil industry to steal from ordinary Americans.

What's for dinner?

climate change.