Highest Rated Comments


st9991146 karma

They are usually - but I find not enough. The saying goes "rise like a rocket, fall like a feather", which refers to how gasoline markets jump at any sign of trouble, but are very resistant to pressures that would lower the price of gasoline.

You've hit on a crucial part of my analysis.

st999413 karma

Here's a short documentary that I'm featured in that talks about gasoline market manipulation. I've linked to the portion where I am introduced: https://youtu.be/4dQpQhI50JE?t=2m16s

st999297 karma

Thanks for these questions - I analyze wholesale prices, both the price charged to gas station owners, and the price charged between oil companies. I watch the ships to see if they are purposely moving to 'trick' a market.

As for oil industry info - I get my information straight from oil sources: I love Oil and Gas This Week podcast, oilprice.com, reuters, bloomberg, any business news source really.

Here's a copy-paste from a different post about AIS & ship movements:

1) Do I use AIS tracking? Yes, I use AIS tracking to monitor the vessels. AIS trackers are on all commercial ships. the data is gathered by AIS but is viewed through third party services. Anyone can check out all the ships on the ocean at [marinetraffic.com](www.marinetraffic.com) or [vesselfinder.com](www.vesselfinder.com). In order to see ship history you have to pay a higher fee.

Most of my experience has been using Bloomberg's ship tracking software on their Bloomberg Terminal program. It's expensive, but the best in the business. You can see any ship, and anywhere it's ever been in its history.

2) What kind of patterns do I look for? Tankers can manipulate markets in a variety of ways. The most important thing is whether there is adequate competition in the market. For example, the United States West Coast has only a few companies, and thus they have a huge amount of control over local commodity markets.

Oftentimes a ship will put a false heading into their public movement profile via AIS. For example, a tanker will say they are heading to Los Angeles, when really they are going to cross through the Panama Canal. Just the rumor of an incoming ship can impact regional prices.

Sometimes companies try to lower the price right before they are scheduled to make a big purchase. For example, Chevron knows it is making a big purchase in the afternoon, so they trick the market into thinking a bunch of oil or gasoline tankers are on the way. The price will fall, then they make their big purchase and save themselves a fortune, when really they created a false wave of imports.

Another tactic is showing up in a port with an expected shipment, and then simply not completing the shipment and leaving, making the regional price of oil or gasoline skyrocket.

st999295 karma

Actually yes - Chevron still owns one "Standard oil" station in each place they operate. It's surreal seeing the station, see the photo at this blog (not my blog): https://thesledgehammer.wordpress.com/2009/02/18/a-not-so-standard-chevron-station/

They do this to retain the trademark. Chevron is the remnant of Standard Oil that was based in California.

st999283 karma

The FTC and FBI have jobs investigating price fixing, as well as any state's Attorneys General. But as far as I know, there isn't anyone else focusing on the oil markets and their fairness - with no profit motive in mind.