IamA Economist Brad DeLong AMA!
Have to go to dinner. Thank you all. It was fun. It was real
I still don't know whether I ought to be more eager to fight one horse-sized duck or one hundred duck-sized horses
My short bio: IamA U.C. Berkeley economist and former Clinton administration Treasury official. My name is Brad DeLong. I'm here to talk trade and bash Trump, but AMA!
Trump's trade policies are highly likely to be significant failures, but feel free to ask me any non-trade or non-Trump questions.
Trump blames our free-trade agreements with Mexico and China's joining the WTO for the decline of manufacturing jobs, but the manufacturing job share would have shrunk from 30% to 12% even if we had done all of our policies right. Bad macroeconomic policies--chiefly the Reagan and Bush 43 deficits--pushed our manufacturing job share down from 12% to 9%. Maybe you can blame free-trade agreements for a decline from 9% to 8.6%. That's 1/50 of the decline. Yet Trump thinks it's the whole thing.
That's the argument I make in http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/24/14363148/trade-deals-nafta-wto-china-job-loss-trump
Moreover, Trump's other policies--a big tax cut for the rich, rejiggering the corporate tax system in various ways--are highly likely to artificially strengthen the dollar further, and send manufacturing jobs heading down rather than up. That's the argument that both my friend, teacher, and next-door office neighbor Barr Eichengreen made last week in https://www.ft.com/content/2a01d6c2-de6f-11e6-86ac-f253db7791c6 and that my friend, teacher, and frequent coauthor Larry Summers made last week in https://www.ft.com/content/f710909f-7f26-399f-a135-e24a91c9063b