sarbjit_smarkets

http://www.reddit.com/user/sarbjit_smarkets

Highest Rated Comments

sarbjit_smarkets35 karma

Currently at 4% for next Democratic presidential nominee according to: https://smarkets.com/event/886734/politics/us/us-presidential-election-2020/democratic-nominee-2020

sarbjit_smarkets31 karma

I see polling as a type of two dimensional data - asking the person a question that could be biased and the person giving an answer they think is acceptable to the interviewer.

Prediction markets ask the trader to consider the most likely outcome and whether the market is correctly priced. The trader also has skin in the game which makes them answer differently about the probability of events.

sarbjit_smarkets26 karma

Our prices will move if people trade the contract. The money isn't going on her so the market is not moving. :-)

sarbjit_smarkets22 karma

I'd go niche: Johnson PM's constituency majority in the next General Election: https://smarkets.com/event/4246682/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/borisjohnson?marketid=30411949

sarbjit_smarkets19 karma

It is circular. There is a clear connection between opinion polls moving the news, the news moving the prediction markets and the prediction markets (where big enough) changing people's views.