paulmotty

3 reasons in particular. First, Warren has momentum whereas Biden started with a big name recognition advantage - something that usually fades as the primaries develop. Second, a perception that Warren's more radical positions will be more favourable among primary voters. Third, she's in the strongest position in the first two primaries. No presidential candidate in recent times failed to win either Iowa or New Hampshire.

True, she fell back slightly on Betfair too after the last debate. May have peaked for now at least.

Another very important factor is the perception that Bernie Sanders will eventually drop out, and his socialist supporters are likelier to transfer to Warren than a centrist.

Because if he fails to win any of those early states, staying in would make no sense and be seen as unnecessarily divisive

Can't see it. Too divisive. I reckon more likely to be one of the up and comers - O'Rourke, Castro, Buttigieg

Not something I can envisage betting on but I do think China are on an unstoppable march whilst the West tears itself apart over culture wars and flirts with abandoning the rule of law. China are building an economic empire already and will ruthlessly exploit AI.