There are some important similarities between you and the great quality guru, W. Edwards Deming.
He was a statistician, but did not like to use probabilities in the context of future events. See his distinction between enumerative and analytic studies.
He taught the importance of "special causes" as unpredictable events. For Deming, these special causes appear as non-random points or patterns on a trend chart of process outcomes, and represent opportunities to learn. Although you approach this differently, I think special causes are Black Swans.
He detested process “tampering.” Tampering is adjusting a process on the basis of outcomes which are within the expected range of variability. The net result is increased variability. When management makes adjustments to a stable process (stable= under statistical control, as operationally defined), this only makes things worse (increases variability). The fragilista are skilled at tampering. Deming developed a famous “funnel experiment” to demonstrate tampering:
Rule 1: Leave the funnel fixed over the target.
Rule 2: For every drop, the marble will come to rest a distance "z" from the target. Rule 2 is to move the funnel a distance -z from its last position.
Rule 3: Move the funnel a distance -z from the target after each drop of the marble that ends up a distance z from the target.
Rule 4: Simply to set the funnel over where the last drop came to rest.
Rule 1 is leave it alone. All the other rules are forms of tampering, which increase variability, as demonstrated in the experiment. The link has a simulation of the experiment.
Examples of Rule 2 include:
• Feedback mechanisms that respond to a single data point
• Changing company policy based on the latest attitude survey
• Adjusting the quota to reflect current output
• Using variances to set budgets
• Stock market reaction to last month's deficit
Examples of Rule 3 include:
• Illicit drugs. Enforcement improves so drugs become scarcer. The price goes up which stimulates the import of more drugs. The cycle repeats.
• Gambler increases his bet to cover losses
Examples of Rule 4 include:
• History passed down from generation to generation.
• Use of last board cut as a pattern for the next board.
• Sitting in a circle with a number of people. One person whispers a secret to the next person who in turns whispers it to the next person and so on.
Deming Quotes:
"The most important things cannot be measured."
"The most important things are unknown or unknowable."
mikebuckl5 karma
There are some important similarities between you and the great quality guru, W. Edwards Deming.
He was a statistician, but did not like to use probabilities in the context of future events. See his distinction between enumerative and analytic studies.
He taught the importance of "special causes" as unpredictable events. For Deming, these special causes appear as non-random points or patterns on a trend chart of process outcomes, and represent opportunities to learn. Although you approach this differently, I think special causes are Black Swans.
He detested process “tampering.” Tampering is adjusting a process on the basis of outcomes which are within the expected range of variability. The net result is increased variability. When management makes adjustments to a stable process (stable= under statistical control, as operationally defined), this only makes things worse (increases variability). The fragilista are skilled at tampering. Deming developed a famous “funnel experiment” to demonstrate tampering:
Rule 1: Leave the funnel fixed over the target.
Rule 2: For every drop, the marble will come to rest a distance "z" from the target. Rule 2 is to move the funnel a distance -z from its last position.
Rule 3: Move the funnel a distance -z from the target after each drop of the marble that ends up a distance z from the target.
Rule 4: Simply to set the funnel over where the last drop came to rest.
Rule 1 is leave it alone. All the other rules are forms of tampering, which increase variability, as demonstrated in the experiment. The link has a simulation of the experiment.
Examples of Rule 2 include: • Feedback mechanisms that respond to a single data point • Changing company policy based on the latest attitude survey • Adjusting the quota to reflect current output • Using variances to set budgets • Stock market reaction to last month's deficit
Examples of Rule 3 include: • Illicit drugs. Enforcement improves so drugs become scarcer. The price goes up which stimulates the import of more drugs. The cycle repeats. • Gambler increases his bet to cover losses
Examples of Rule 4 include: • History passed down from generation to generation. • Use of last board cut as a pattern for the next board. • Sitting in a circle with a number of people. One person whispers a secret to the next person who in turns whispers it to the next person and so on.
Deming Quotes:
"The most important things cannot be measured."
"The most important things are unknown or unknowable."
http://www.symphonytech.com/funnelexp.htm
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