joshzumbrun

What would you say are the best-case and worst-case scenarios for stability in the Middle East in the next 10 years?

Hi Professor Sumner, how would you respond to the observation that NGDP-advocates often engage in the "no true Scotsman" fallacy.

• First, we heard that central banks can control NGDP if they truly try.
• Then, in addition to the forecasts and the communications they took actions to try to bring it about (QE, etc.)
• But, over past 4 years most central banks repeatedly missed their nominal goals.
• Then, rather than refine the view, the response is simply: "well, they must not have truly tried"?

Hasn't the difficulty of the world's central banks in achieving inflation goals over the past 4 years demonstrated that it can be very difficult for central banks to control nominal variables with any precision?