itsmotherandapig

Wow, that's a super-stoner explanation!

Hello, mr. Dalio,

I recently read and thoroughly enjoyed your book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, but it left me with a nagging question:

Did you take demographics into account when studying the various empires?

I ask this question because I believe that China will hit a major roadblock very soon due to its rapidly aging population. A shrinking workforce will have to support a growing cohort of retirees, which means that innovation and competitiveness might take a major hit.

The current trend of predicting that China will overtake the US reminds me of a similar trend regarding Japan in the 80s. That did not exactly pan out, and their elderly population has correlated with very weak economic growth.

Am I missing something here? I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Thanks for taking the time to answer!

I guess the key thing to watch here is whether China's rate of productivity increase continues to outpace and compensate for their population's rate of aging out of the workforce.