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helicityman676 karma

We have been expecting the climate pattern to go from a weak El Nino, warm sea surface temps in the Pacific, to normal temps then to cooler sea surface temperatures during the summer. This pattern causes the upper level westerly winds to retreat northward leading to less frequent episodes of shear. Sea surface temperatures in most of the Gulf of Mexico, across the Caribbean and across much of the tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal already and climate models show abnormally warm water through November. Another new issue is that rainfall over key areas of the Sahel in western Africa are reporting above normal rainfall. Some stations are reporting abnormally high rainfall. That suggests the East African Jet that brings tropical waves off the west coast of Africa is more active than normal. These and plus projected wind flow along an south of 15 north point to a very active season . This lines up with past active seasons.

helicityman619 karma

No I have not. It's on my bucket list but you have to have special permission to do so. If I pushed the issue I could probably get a slot. But I have to tried that just yet.

helicityman362 karma

It will never happen. Private Industry fills the void of government not being able to respond to every industrial need. The general public has access to all kinds of weather information but it will be the government that will issue the public watches and warnings that will tell people to evacuate. There's too much of a litigation issue for the Private sector.

helicityman297 karma

Very good question. I got my degree in Meteorology at Purdue thinking I would be drawn into severe storms, tornadoes and severe thunderstorms which I witnessed first hand as a kid growing up on a farm in central Indiana. But once in college I discovered tropical weather. I took two graduate level tropical meteorology courses offered at Purdue and did very well. So, when I started working at AccuWeather after college I got lots of opportunity to work with clients impacted by Hurricanes. In fact my first hurricane I had to deal with was Belle in the fall of 1976.

helicityman256 karma

I believe local officials are addressing this and a lot of major cities already have detailed plans (Houston Texas). If you live along the coast please check with your local officials on what has changed. Some people may not evacuate due to the fear of being cooped up with other people. That is where the idea of putting evacuees into hotels well inland from the coast. I advise following your local official's guidance. If they tell you to evacuate do so and ask for help, But please get this figured out before the storm forms. Have a detailed hurricane plan in place.