garysamore

I think nuclear war is unlikely in the next five years but probably greatest risk between India and Pakistan, arising out of a conventional conflict.

Welcome and thanks for your good question. I don't think the Ukraine crisis will likely change the attitudes or behavior of the 9 countries (U.S., Russia, China, UK, France, India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea) that already have nuclear weapons because these countries already have strong motivations to retain their nuclear forces. I also don't see any countries in Eastern Europe that are likely to begin nuclear weapons programs because of Ukraine. They continue to rely on NATO and the U.S. nuclear umbrella for their security.

US Tactical nuclear weapons based in Europe serve very little military value but they provide a political symbol of U.S. commitment to the defense of Europe. The main US nuclear deterrent is submarine and land based long range missiles that can hit their targets very quickly. As far as I know, no nuclear power uses a "Dead Hand" system.

Our current missile defense systems would not be effective against any opponent with a modern large nuclear force (such as Russia and China) but it might be effective against a small, primitive force (such as North Korea).

The Russians fear that our existing missile defense systems will be expanded and modernized to the point that it would pose a threat to their strategic nuclear forces.