Highest Rated Comments


asdlkf387 karma

but.. you want it to be hard

asdlkf128 karma

The probability of winning a hand before you are dealt a hand is based on what cards are in the deck.

You can (roughly) determine what cards are still in the deck by remembering what cards you have seen, or using a mathmatical algorhithm to (roughly) represent what cards have been seen.

For example, if you had a deck with 13 cards in it (ace through king of hearts), you start out with a "score" of 0.

You see the first card; it is a 4. 4 is a "low" card, so you add +1 to your count.

0 + 1 = 1. 

You see the second card. it is a 3; a low card. you again add +1.

1 + 1 = 2. 

You see the third card. It is a 6; a low card. you again add +1.

2 + 1 = 3.

At this point, you have a deck value of 3. This indicates there is a "high" ratio of "high numbered cards" remaining in the deck.

At this point, the game's odds are more in your favor overall than they were when the score was 0. Alternatively, you could have instead seen "king, queen, jack" which you would instead count as -1, -1, -1 = -3. This -3 indicates a "low" ratio of "high numbered cards.

When the deck's score is particularly high, bet larger amounts. When the deck's score is particularly low, make the smallest bets possible to cycle cards in the deck until the deck's score is favorable again.

asdlkf68 karma

Uh, for the uninformed, what's Prop B?

asdlkf49 karma

even if you only see 120 cards out of 312 (say they put the "you must reshuffle now" card at 180 cards deep), there can be (in this case) 60 cards worth of "somewhat higher value". Not every shoe will turn out this way, but if you are making $1 bets to clear the deck looking for a high valued deck, at 48% odds, you can make 10,000 $1 bets for about $200 (if you play perfectly).

If it takes you 10,000 bets (where on average you loose 0.02), you will eventually find a "good" shoe where you have 50-70 cards left and the count is at +15 to +20. At this point, you leave the table and have an (unassociated) partner come to the table and make 20x $100 bets. If you have raised the odds on the table (by counting and waiting until the shoeis at +15 or so) to about 60% (instead of the "average" of 48.5%), then each of the $100 bets should (on average) win $10.

So, your partner sits down with $2,000 and makes 20 different $100 bets. He wins 60% of those bets (well... incorporating blackjacks/whatever he "wins" fewer hands, but he ends up with 120% as much money as he had, and he turns $2,000 into $2,400.

Subtract the $200 that you lost from your 10,000 $1 bets, and you have a net investment of $2,200 and a net result of $2,400, for a net profit on the night of $200.

Obviously adjust any numbers for the scale of your bankroll and the margins permitted on the tables.

Most casinos only allow a 25x multiplier between their minimum and maximum bets (so you could only make $25 bets, not $100 bets, if your cycling bet was $1.). this limit of $25 means instead of $10 profit per hand, your profit is only $2.50, which is not enough overall to cover your initial loss of $200 with the 10,000x $1 bets.

Also, placing 10,000 1$ bets takes a long fucking time. You'd be better off working for McDonalds unless your bankroll is $50,000 or more to start with and you can afford $10 or $20 "cycling bets" and $1000 or $5000 "high deck value" bets.

asdlkf29 karma

On a scale of "your cousin twice removed's facebook updates" to "VP of sales for solarwinds products", how spammy is your newsletter?