One of the core flaws of the JCPOA, in my opinion, is the difference in the ability to track and manage the obligations of the various parties to the agreement. For example, it's a straightforward process for Iran to demonstrate compliance to the JCPOA because of the material nature of its obligations: reduce the number of centrifuges by x amount, limit the stock of enriched uranium by y amount, and so on. Whereas the ability to track and manage the lifting of sanctions, particularly by the US, is a lot more conceptual, in that there is no real metric by which compliance can be measured, other than to determine whether or not the US is abiding by the 'spirit of the deal'.
This problem is coming to the fore today: while Iran believes it has stuck to its obligations, and can materially demonstrate so, it is proving far more difficult to determine whether the US is sticking to its own obligations. Frozen assets have been unfrozen, yes, but so too has the US passed new laws and regulations seizing such assets (for example the ruling to pay victims of Iran's 'terror'). The recent move by Congress to block the sale of Boeing and Airbus planes to Iran, on the basis that these planes would support Iranian 'terror' and violate non-nuclear related sanctions, is another perceived slight on the JCPOA, which actually undermines one of the core selling points of the deal (to revive Iran's ailing and dangerous airline industry). Along with refusing Iran access to dollar trading, these restrictions hardly appear to be abiding by the 'spirit of the deal', although the US can rightly argue that it is not violating its obligations.
To what extent do you believe Iran can withstand and navigate these difficulties? Are there better ways to track US compliance to the JCPOA? In hindsight, would you have negotiated the JCPOA differently?
abu_ferdowsi11 karma
Hello, thank you for holding this AMA.
One of the core flaws of the JCPOA, in my opinion, is the difference in the ability to track and manage the obligations of the various parties to the agreement. For example, it's a straightforward process for Iran to demonstrate compliance to the JCPOA because of the material nature of its obligations: reduce the number of centrifuges by x amount, limit the stock of enriched uranium by y amount, and so on. Whereas the ability to track and manage the lifting of sanctions, particularly by the US, is a lot more conceptual, in that there is no real metric by which compliance can be measured, other than to determine whether or not the US is abiding by the 'spirit of the deal'.
This problem is coming to the fore today: while Iran believes it has stuck to its obligations, and can materially demonstrate so, it is proving far more difficult to determine whether the US is sticking to its own obligations. Frozen assets have been unfrozen, yes, but so too has the US passed new laws and regulations seizing such assets (for example the ruling to pay victims of Iran's 'terror'). The recent move by Congress to block the sale of Boeing and Airbus planes to Iran, on the basis that these planes would support Iranian 'terror' and violate non-nuclear related sanctions, is another perceived slight on the JCPOA, which actually undermines one of the core selling points of the deal (to revive Iran's ailing and dangerous airline industry). Along with refusing Iran access to dollar trading, these restrictions hardly appear to be abiding by the 'spirit of the deal', although the US can rightly argue that it is not violating its obligations.
To what extent do you believe Iran can withstand and navigate these difficulties? Are there better ways to track US compliance to the JCPOA? In hindsight, would you have negotiated the JCPOA differently?
Thank you again for your time.
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