WhatTheFugacity_2 karma2020-11-11 15:56:35 UTC
That’s a good point. I agree, vaccine trials take so long to run, I don’t think we can say anything this early on. Either way, claiming 90% efficacy this early on seems overly optimistic in my opinion. I don’t remember something like this happening for any vaccine before. I’m not believing it either way until I see the raw data direct from Pfizer, but I think it’s wise to err on the side of caution. I wish people in the public wouldn’t believe these claims at face value instead of going crazy over how the pandemic may be about the end now... we’ve got a long ways to go yet.
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WhatTheFugacity_0 karma2020-11-11 15:40:17 UTC
I don’t have any data files but was told from someone at my institution. So I suppose I could be misinformed, but I don’t think it’s likely considering the person who shared the information with me.
Apparently, 10 people in the trial got infected. 9 of the 10 were in the placebo group, so someone said this equates to 90% efficacy. (N=~60)
My question is, it seems fishy to me that Pfizer has not released their data. If they were confident in the 90% efficacy claim, wouldn’t they be jumping at the bit to release their data?
WhatTheFugacity_0 karma2020-11-11 16:06:15 UTC
I trust the source but you could never be 100% sure until seeing the raw data direct from Pfizer, and I haven’t seen that personally. I said “definitely” because I don’t see anywhere else to go except for down after claiming 90% efficacy. Even just based on intuition about vaccine trials, it seems rash to claim that as confidently as Pfizer has this early on.
I suppose that initial comment came across very strong. But I still don’t see this going too well for Pfizer. Moderna’s published data isn’t anywhere close to 90% efficacy, and they are both mRNA vaccines. I wouldn’t expect the results between the two trials to be too different considering the formulation, at least in the long run. Happy to forward along papers for the Moderna trial if anybody wants to see.
WhatTheFugacity_-3 karma2020-11-11 14:43:21 UTC
This number is marketing. I have heard about the raw data, and whoever wrote the 90% is clearly not familiar with basic stats or vaccine trials. Their sample size is also too small to come to any grandiose conclusions.
Definitely will look bad for Pfizer. Interested to see how this plays out.
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