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TrogdorLLC26 karma

Or, pad the box with lead weights to mask the true weight.

TrogdorLLC14 karma

History Detectives is a show on PBS where they track down the story behind old things. In your case, you have the story, but not the film, so it's sort of backwards from what they usually do, but I bet they could use their contacts to track down the film if it still exists.

Here is their website: http://www.pbs.org/opb/historydetectives/ Try submitting your story and see if they can help. Good luck!

TrogdorLLC12 karma

I have lived with major tinnitus most of my life. Sometimes so loud it would wake me up. Another upside to my impending CI, I guess.

TrogdorLLC6 karma

Did you ever find that video of you dancing? Have you thought about contacting History Detectives to help find it?

TrogdorLLC6 karma

I actually wrote a(n unaccepted) article on this subject recently. It's *very* unlikely an EU-based SPV will actually get off the ground, for the reasons you quote. Even if you try to play cute and do everything in euros and the transactions never leave the EU, the US Treasury Department OFAC office only has to read the newspaper to see who is doing business with Iran and levy sanctions and fines. Firms with branch offices in the US would run the risk of having assets seized, in addition to having import sanctions levied.

Getting back to the EU SPV, the trouble France and Germany have had with getting a bank to be the go-between between Iran and importers/exporters boils down to this: Even if the chosen bank is small and has negligible exposure to US/dollar markets (making it less vulnerable to US sanctions), the larger banks that it depends on for cross-border transactions have said in no uncertain terms that they will cut off all contact with it. Add to this that the US will most definitely impose personal travel sanctions on the small bank's executives and board, and it really is a non-starter.

In my opinion, China is the the best position to capitalize on the unilateral resumption of US sanctions on Iran. They will pay lip service to US sanctions on importing Iranian oil, but will continue to buy as much as they need/want.

By pretending to abide by US sanctions on Iran, the money they would pay Tehran for oil remains in escrow in China, denominated in renminbi. Therefore, Iran is forced to buy Chinese goods at whatever price China demands. Bonus for Beijing: Iran is desperate for income, and will drastically cut the prices they charge for oil to account for the greater risk to the buyer.

The huge trump card (no pun intended) that China holds over the US is that Washington is virtually totally dependent on China's cooperation in any effort to enforce sanctions on North Korea. Therefore, the US can't afford to push too hard on China for buying Iranian oil.

Secondarily, this is an opportunity from heaven for China's efforts to make the CNY a stronger presence in international trade. Shanghai oil futures are denominated in renminbi. Companies buying these oil futures will need to buy CNY, which will increase demand for it. This strengthens the yuan market, AND adds cachet to the CNY as an accepted currency for international trade.

Parties can have their euros/rupees/yen converted directly into CNY and vice versa through special channels that don't do the "dollar shuffle".

Even when international trade is not denominated in dollars. standard procedure is to convert currency A to USD, then from USD to currency B. Presto, you're now exposed to US sanctions.

By purpose-building direct currency pair transactions between two countries, you can avoid that.

Number 2 in the "plus column" re: Iran sanctions is Russia. They are already under numerous sanctions from the US and EU both, so what do they care about trading with Iran? Oil tankers can get from the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas through various Russian canals and rivers into the Caspian Sea. Iran has two ports on the Caspian that can be used to ship their oil to Russia, where it can be blended with Russian oil to disguise its origin, and be sold on the open market. Russia will be happy to sell Iran trucks, factory equipment, etc., in return.

The EU and moderate politicians in Iran are the big losers in this sanctions game. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (nuclear deal) is basically dead now, and the hardliners in Iran are going to do everything they can to discredit Rouhani and the the moderates.

Oh yeah: In order for Iran to join any EU SPV, they will have to strengthen their anti-money laundering laws to meet EU standards. Both hardliners and moderates that have been stealing billions of dollars a year from the Iranian government aren't going to let that happen.