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TheRealStepBot50 karma

Both the SpaceX and Boeing missions have a crewmember of STS-135, the last shuttle mission that left the flag on the space station as part of their crew. Specifically, Chris Ferguson was the commander of STS-135 and will be flying on the Boeing manned test flight while Doug Hurley was the pilot for STS-135 and will be flying on the SpaceX manned test flight.

As such its probably going to come down to which company gets there first, which following Boeing's recent setbacks is looking to be SpaceX and as a result, the SpaceX crew comprised of Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley. Thereafter I assume that within the crew the honor will likely go to the crewmember who was a part of STS-135 who also happens to be the senior crewmember. This obviously maximizes the symbolic "we are back" imagery.

All of which is to say barring major issues at SpaceX over the next 3-6 months it's likely going to be Doug Hurley.