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ShikukuWabe7 karma

Hello Adham,

Are there any regulations in the press (either by the outlet or the government) in regards to news coverage of Israel?

We often hear about Egyptians asking their government to rip apart the Peace Agreement with Israel (normally after an event that happens between Israel and Palestinians or other Arab/Muslim countries), would you say that this is a common sentiment amongst the populace or just hardliners getting more coverage as its likely a more acceptable notion to hate on Israel

Are Egypt's control and closure of Gaza's border often discussed in the press or the government disapproves of open discussion in the matter?

Thanks, Peace

ShikukuWabe5 karma

While its probably still a mess as a whole, the tourist coastal areas are usually very safe

When I say very safe I mean even Israelis still go there (though they normally have a mentality of 'everywhere is dangerous anyway so why not')

ShikukuWabe3 karma

Well, sadly my medical condition is a problem on that front ;[

ShikukuWabe2 karma

In Israel the market is rather small and mostly focused on Arch-Viz, there aren't any real game companies (that don't make facebook/mobile style games) and the few studios that do meaningful work mostly work in TV commercials (mostly 2D/2.5D with After Effects and stuff) and they are completely full with experienced talent, There ain't much work for 3D Generalists or VFX but the main problem is the TV industry simply doesn't understand '3D artists' as a concept, at best they know animators

Most of the big talent goes abroad (they can be found in all major studios)

Any recommendations on how one could maneuver professionally in such a market?

ShikukuWabe2 karma

The first scenario is quite accurate unlike the second scenario, overall there are some conceptual mistakes here

Iran does have have interest in escalating tensions, preferably through proxies as to avoid direct blame as per your first scenario, the logic behind this is that Iran is already on the ropes economically and their only means of retaliation against the US are as followed :

  • The threat of closing the Straits of Hormuz or hurting trade in it through more subtle terror attacks (such as the tankers), Iran's various generals and other officials have said numerous times (including in the past week~) that if they won't be able to trade oil/gas then no one will, however, this would unite the world against them if we reach 'collision'
  • Using the Houtis which they massively sponsor to attack SA's Oil and Shipping industries so they put pressure on the US to de-escalate and relieve sanctions, hits on these affect global oil trade which in turn hurts global economies, oil prices have already risen a little due to most recent attacks and Iran also profits from the little oil they manage to sell meanwhile, they continuously make an example of their abilities to do so as a warning to the US
  • Using Hamas, IPJ & Hezbollah which they sponsor against Israel, while Hezbollah is mostly saved as the retaliatory 'Trump Card' against US/Israeli strikes on the nuclear facilities, they will be activated soon enough if tensions persist long enough or we reach collision, IPJ (which unlike Hamas is almost exclusively financed by Iran) already escalated a 'small round' (700~ rocket fired) just recently against Israel despite no direct gains as Israel & Hamas were in talks, it was simply an Iranian directive, in these small scales the local conflict in Israel's region is meaningless, but a wider war similar to the 2nd Lebanon war which by all estimates will be a dozen time more destructive will surely impact the region and trade which will affect global oil prices too

These points would certainly appear to strengthen your theory that Israel/Saudi Arabia have high interests in pushing the US to attack Iran, on paper.

In practice as useful for these countries as a war with Iran may be on the long run (that's of course if we take into assumption it ends well for the US & its allies such as a favorable regime change in Iran and not too much destruction regionally) neither of them are interested in a war, SA is already fighting a war which the world does not support and has committed several acts to turn people against it (Khashoggi killing for example), hurting their oil trade would hurt them immensely while Israel enjoys economic and tourist prosperity which would be ruined for years if a large war would erupt, that's without even considering the mass amount of casualties and damage that would happen in a Northern front opens again & if Iran launches heavy ballistic missiles at them

Adding to that, former (deceased) Mossad head for 9 years Meir Dagan (who was incharge of the operations against Iran) & CIA head Leon Panetta were both strongly against a war with Iran for these very reasons, Dagan was in favor of supporting Iranian students & democracy supporters in revolting against the regime and acted upon it, they believed regime change through sanctions was a far superior strategy that didn't involve the destruction of the entire region in war, Netanyahu has an obsession with Iran since the 70s but he's not stupid and is also constantly challenged by his Cabinet against it, besides he's too busy with his investigations, forming a government (now new elections again) and Trump already gives him everything he wants and even supports and admits the sanctions are working well

Israel/SA and even the US would all be extremely stupid to attempt a false flag such as attacking the tankers in the current situation, a false flag is an extremely high risk high reward move and the backfiring potential against all 3 is immense, if you think Trump is taking heat right now, imagine what would happen if the US public would KNOW he agreed to a false flag op to attack Iran, the US itself would only go to war (or at least retaliate militarily) if its directly attacked or if Trump believes it will help him win the next elections

There's a lot more complexity and more actors involved in this geopolitical nightmare but to keep it short I'll say this :

Iran's game is counting on their threats to global trade to convince Europe to put Trump on a leash or wait him out for a Democratic president like Obama who would pander to them again, Europe has no bone in anything Iran related and honestly doesn't give a shit about their nuclear program either, all they want is money, the nuclear agreement showed them the incredible money potential hidden in Iran and they want to tap it ASAP and Trump is hindering that with his sanctions, the only question is will they succeed in stopping a war before someone on either side makes a mistake that will put everyone on an unstoppable collision course

*Side Note on your last paragraph - While SA would win the Sunni/Shia hegemony war in the middle east if the Ayatollahs are removed, even a western puppet regime would still challenge their oil/gas trade dominance and Israel has 0 interest in 'expanding' into Lebanon and Syria, that's just ridiculous, Israel held south Lebanon for 18 years and didn't settle there and never showed any interest in doing so and they already annexed Syria's only valuable territory in their proximity and still barely settle there (50k~ residents of which half were already there when they took over), if you are basing this line of thought on some 'Greater Israel' idea then I'de just like to say its nonsense, less than 5% of the Israeli population (mostly the religious settlers) has any ideological interest in it let alone practical interest in making it happen