Matthew_Shaddick

If you don't mind waiting a while, pick someone you think might be next Labour leader and back them to be next PM. You'll get at least 20/1 and the current prices will all change quite dramatically if we get past a general election with Johnson still in charge.

It's still pretty niche, but compares favourably to some lower/mid level sports.

if we got a general election and a POTUS election next year, politics might overtake (in terms of money taken) things like Rugby League, Formula 1, maybe Boxing.

We manage to turn a profit most years anyway!

There is *some* evidence that betting markets perform a *little* better than models based on polling alone.

Big, multi-million pound liquid betting markets are still a relatively recent phenomena, so it's early days to be saying anything very confident about their usefulness as predictors. There are certainly still a lot of biases an inefficiencies, that's for sure.

about 3/1

The "average" Ladbrokes punter (who might typically only bet sports) would tend to get involved at a much later stage in, say, an election.

Probably about 50% of all the money we will take on the US election will be in the last 72 hours, even though the market will have been running for four years.

Before that, the market is mostly made up of people who are paying a lot of attention and are much more tuned in to political developments.