I did this analysis a while back and came to the conclusion that the answer is never. Ticket sales start to grow exponentially after a certain point and the odds that you’ll have to split the pot several ways start to become very high. I want to say the sweet spot was somewhere in the $500M - $1B range where your expected value approaches even but doesn’t quite get there.
Languid_lizard40 karma
I did this analysis a while back and came to the conclusion that the answer is never. Ticket sales start to grow exponentially after a certain point and the odds that you’ll have to split the pot several ways start to become very high. I want to say the sweet spot was somewhere in the $500M - $1B range where your expected value approaches even but doesn’t quite get there.
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