Jumpsteady797 karma2019-06-20 18:19:34 UTC
Dear Ed Hawkins,
Harvard Professor James Anderson says: "Recovery is all but impossible, without a World War II-style transformation of industry—an acceleration of the effort to halt carbon pollution and remove it from the atmosphere, and a new effort to reflect sunlight away from the earth’s poles. This has do be done, within the next FIVE years."
Article here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2018/01/15/carbon-pollution-has-shoved-the-climate-backward-at-least-12-million-years-harvard-scientist-says/
We thought so far, that reaching carbon neutrality in 2050 would be sufficient. Can you explain why our window of action has reduced to five years now?
Thank you very much.
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Jumpsteady795 karma2019-06-20 18:04:51 UTC
Dear Prof Hawkins, how will average temperatures change in Iceland in 2050 and 2100 following the RCP8.5? Do you have a Link for me or the information itself?
Jumpsteady794 karma2019-06-20 18:54:27 UTC
Thank you. I am sorry but I don’t know what the three columns stand for. 25% / 50% / 75% At which one do I have to look?
Jumpsteady792 karma2019-06-20 17:42:08 UTC
Thanks for your answer. I am just wondering why is the basis for all public goals the 67% chance budget. Has anyone decided to go with 67% chance because this seems good enough? Why not aim for 90% chance or even higher? I don’t really understand this. Is it simply because it is impossible to stay below 2°C warming with a 90% chance?
Jumpsteady791 karma2019-06-20 18:48:10 UTC
Thank you for pointing out that you are not certain as to why 67% was chosen. But may I ask you for your opinion as a scientist? To me 67% chance sounds not quite certain especially when it comes to such an existential threat as the climate crisis. This still means that with 33% probability, we will not limit warming to 2°C, even if we stay within the carbon budget.
What do you think about 67%? What chance would you regard as a sensible probability target? If you were counselling policymakers on that, what probability target would you suggest to use as a basis?
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