Great-Gap1030

Citizens do have a lot of weapons, but only in large cities.

Some examples of those weapons those civilians have?

Are they able to use Western equipment?

Do some Ukrainian civilians capture Russian equipment to utilise it in case the other equipment runs out of ammo?

This is how people catch looters and resist Russian saboteurs (saboteurs are quite numerous).There is even a special word "паляниця" (round bread), Russians cannot pronounce it correctly, but Ukrainians do it easily. Even Google translator says it correctly. This is one way of defining saboteurs.

How many Russians can pronounce паляниця correctly?

Would the Russians be able to use Ukrainian loyalists to Russia to circumvent this quick test?

But in Russian-occupied cities, using weapons looks like suicide. The enemy has heavy equipment and trained men.

That's quite true. Though if the partisans can take down the relatively modern T-90 tanks then it's a loss for the Russians.

Unfortunately the airforce is a real issue.

The Ukrainian army was able to stop the advance of the Russian military along most routes.

From ISW reports the Russians have entered a brief operational pause.

Now Ukraine controls most of the main cities, the enemy shells the cities (which are full of civilians) with rockets and airstrikes.

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#/media/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg we can see the Russians are bypassing the big cities. As of 11 March, the Russians seem to be attempting a small encirclement in Luhansk. They are also attempting a small encirclement in Donetsk, which would also secure the land corridor between the rebels and Crimea.

Do you think Russia has the strength to encircle the Ukrainian forces in the Donbass?

A lot of our air defense was destroyed on the first day of the war by a planned attack, so we keep on the ground, but the enemy controls the airspace (therefore there is conflicting information).

What do you think of the discussions about a no-fly zone in Ukraine?

Some cities are destroyed by missiles by 50-70%.

How destroyed is your city (don't answer if you don't want to)?

Yes, Ukraine cannot transport food to the lost territories, and the occupiers do it. As far as I know, the Russian army itself needs more food than it has today. But I do not think that it will be critical for civilians.

To me, it looks like the Russians aren't logistically doing very well. How long do you think it'll take before the Russians plunder the supplies from the captured towns in order to sustain the advance?

Ordinary people are given Kalashnikov assault rifles and many old weapons. They are not in the best condition, but they are better than nothing. There are many videos where they show how they give guns.

How decent is the maintenance of these Soviet-era weapons? Better than the Russians?

Soldiers do that. Civilians do it very rarely

Have you seen civilians capturing Russian equipment? Do some civilians go behind Russian lines to scavenge supplies, and then turn back?

The combinations of sounds in this word are almost never found in Russian. Very few can answer correctly.

Considering this 'test' is now in the Internet the Russian army is almost certainly going to train some of their spies to pronounce паляниця.

It is important to note that this is only a superficial test, there are other more accurate ways.

For example? Which you'd need when the паляниця test fails.

Tanks don't seem to be a big problem, there is plenty of evidence of tank columns being destroyed. Anti-tank weapons are being given to Ukraine by the allies.

That's good. Though your partisans would have to worry about bombardments.

The Russians have been accused of using dumb bombs on civilian areas. Is that true? If so, perhaps the Russians are being desperate.

Air missiles also cause a lot of problems. Russia has a lot of these missiles they are left over from the communists.

Are you aware of any civilian weaponry that can mess up those missiles, or at least decoy them to somewhere else?

Now the Russians admit that the operation did not go according to plan and it seems that indeed the Russians need to send reinforcements and fuel for their soldiers.

They are advancing slower than usual.

Apparently Ukraine was supposed to be conquered in 15 days, which has pretty much failed as it's over 15 days.

How long do you think Ukraine can hold off the Russians? Until mud season is over? A couple months?

From https://www.globalfirepower.com/manpower-reaching-military-age-annually.php the Russians have 1.28 million reaching military age per year.

Assuming less than half of them are men, I think up to 300 thousand troops could be called in every year. What do you think? In wartime up to maybe half the men could be fit for service, and possibly 2-5% of the women.

There is a lot of information that the Russian tanks are stopping because the fuel vehicles are behind or have been destroyed. A mini pause exists. But even now I hear explosions all the time. They are going on around the clock. It's terrifying to listen to.

Would the Russians be forced to use their AirPower to keep the advance going?

Could some Ukrainians be infiltrating behind Russian lines to disable key communications for Russian army?

When the Russians failed on key points, they began encirclement tactics.

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#/media/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg they've already encircled the area around Nizhyn and is in the process of cutting down the encirclement. The Russians might be able to encircle Chernihiv, and might be able to reach Boryspil to cut off the Kiev-Poltava railroad.

It appears Sumy is threatened with encirclement but the Russians aren't making much progress. Where do you think the Russians will attempt to put full effort on making encirclement?

BTW it looks like the Russians are attempting small encirclements in the Donbass.

What are the odds that the Russians attempt a big encirclement in the Donbass? For example, imagine after encircling Kivsharivka and securing the land corridor to the south, the Russians regroup. The southern pincer attacks north towards Zaphorzhia and Dnipro while the northern pincer attacks southwest from Izium to Dnipro and Pavlograd, creating a large encirclement around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

What would the Ukrainians do in this situation? Would the encircled Donbass force attempt to breakout, and if so, west to cross the Dnieper or northwest to Poltava?

Now there are no completely closed rings, I haven't heard of any.

Well do you think the Wikipedia map of the invasion is misleading? Because at least to me it seems to suggest that Nizhyn was completely encircled.

Russia is attacking from all sides, it takes a lot of resources to break through the defenses and not weaken its other positions. So Russia is pulling together forces to attack from all its territories. Even if they fail, they are ready for a siege war.

If Kharkiv falls then the Kharkiv-Dnipro railroads and roads are usable by the Russians for a massive encirclement.

Would the defenders sacrifice themselves to allow other Ukrainian forces to get out of the potential encirclement (in Donbass)?

How much is your city resisting the occupation?

There are also cities that Ukraine is taking back under its control.

What do you think of the possibility of Russia using that, tying down Ukrainian reserves, as an opportunity to encircle the Donbass region?

A no-fly zone would mean the allies actually going to war with Russia. It would entail deaths. I can't demand that, it's the choice of the people and the EU and NATO government. We have to accept that choice.

The possibility of Putin nuking Ukraine?

It is more realistic to provide Ukraine with old planes that our pilots can fly.

What planes do you think the pilots can actually fly? It would take quite a while to learn how to fly an F-35 or F-22? Could they fly F-18s, F-16s? Mig-29s? Eurofighter Typhoons?

And could Ukrainian pilots use Mig-29s, disguise themselves as Russian fighters and attempt to wreak havoc on nearby airfields?

My city is not destroyed. It's lucky. It was surrounded and the Ukrainian military probably found it too difficult to defend. It is a small town it is not strategically important. If it had been defended, the soldiers would have been trapped.

Are you planning to escape the small town, or are you planning to fight the Russians to the death? You might find the rewards of escaping worth it.

Would you go through the Belarussian border to Baltic States to escape, or attempt to cross the contested areas to the Ukrainian side, and then make a run for the border?