How do you evaluate the effectiveness of preventative organizations? E.g., if an organization claims to be working on "supervolcano prevention"--an existential risk!--and then there's no supervolcano for 20 years, is giving them money more/less effective than malaria nets? (This has natural extensions to AI safety research, pandemic prevention, etc).
Future-Hospital480533 karma
How do you evaluate the effectiveness of preventative organizations? E.g., if an organization claims to be working on "supervolcano prevention"--an existential risk!--and then there's no supervolcano for 20 years, is giving them money more/less effective than malaria nets? (This has natural extensions to AI safety research, pandemic prevention, etc).
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