ChrisArsenaultAJE

Hi,

It is indeed a bizarre situation. I did an investigation of this a few days ago and fundamentally, the main issue relates to the currency. Venezuela depends on imports for 95% of what people consume. Importers can't access US dollars easily, as the supply of currency is controlled by the state.

For basic products produced in Venezuela, including Arena Pan (corn flour used in Arepas, the national dish) the government has price controls. This has led to companies producing less - especially when they have trouble accessing machine parts or raw materials because of currency problems. The controls have led to a thriving black market, where traders are selling basic goods at prices far higher than the controlled rate.

Hoarding, as the government constantly reminds the population, is indeed an issue. But you don't see hoarding in Brazil or Colombia. Fundamentally, the government has tried to impose its will on the laws of supply and demand and failed quite miserably.

It really depends who you want to help. For all its faults, Maduro's government still has major public support. The Chavistas did indeed win 18 out of 19 elections. There are, of course, plenty of cases where they used state resources for their campaigns and a mix of the carrot and stick to gain support. But fundamentally, these are secret ballot elections and Maduro retains significant support. So, if you want to help the government, come to Venezuela and see what's going on, write letters to the editor of your local newspaper, drink a lot of Venezuelan coffee and drive an SUV which you fill at Citgo. The US NGO global exchange offers "reality tours" where one can see the country and meet people from a leftist outlook (full disclosure: one of my friends here is Global Exchange's local guide).

If you want to support the opposition, speak out against the repression of student demonstrators, advocate for boycotts of Venezuelan oil, and organise student exchanges/speaking tours with members of the opposition so they can talk directly to your community.

It's very hard to get too excited about Nicolas Maduro's leadership. And the feeling of things getting worse is more pervasive, especially given the economic situation. For all of his faults, Chavez was a larger than life figure, someone who radiated charisma and had a real connection to the poor. Within the socialist party, Maduro was seen as a "yes man". He is not viewed as a particularly tactile politician. Supporters of the socialists will say "Maduro is the son of Chavez so we support him" but it doesn't seem like there is a lot of passion about his leadership or where he has taken the country. The mood has certainly worsened. On the streets, there is a feeling of stagnation and decay in many (though certainly not all) neighbourhoods.

Corruption here is major - far worse than Brazil or Chile for example. My own view is that oil producing countries are often particularly vulnerable to corruption and anecdotally I believe it has gotten worse during the socialist period. The mix of high oil prices and government regulation and most of all the currency controls has led to an explosion in the black market. Living on the official exchange rate (11.3 bolivars to the US dollar) this is probably the most expensive place I have ever worked. On the black market rate 80 bolivars to the dollar, it's very cheap. Currency controls are essentially a license to print money for senior government officials.

Doing basic transactions in huge wads of cash isn't something I have seen anywhere else in Latin America in the normal economy (the drug trade notwithstanding of course). This sort of economic climate breeds corruption.

In short, if I had to guess, they will fizzle. The protesters don't have a serious political programme. Other than staying in the streets, they don't even know what's next. When pressed on this issue, many opposition demonstrators admit they need the army to get involved. I don't see that happening (but I could be wrong). I don't think there is anywhere for them to go.

There are some quite serious anti-democratic tendencies in the opposition. In my personal view, i think they need to build some more support in poor communities and wait until the next elections. Without a coup (something which anyone who believes in democracy would abhor) there is simply no where for the protests to go at this point.