BrowderBill

Sadly, I think there is a very high probability that this war doesn't end. Now that Putin has started it, he can't back down. And there's no way that Zelensky is going to give up his territory to Russia. Since there is no clear military victor, I dread to say that this may go on for years and years

Oligarchs are in dire straits right now. They can't access their cash, nobody wants to do business with them and they are radioactive. Unfortunately, no matter how angry they are, they have no power or ability to rise up against Putin. If he gets even the smallest inkling of betrayal, he will imprison them or even kill them. They are so scared of him, they will just lick their wounds and curse him under their breath in private.

I don't buy the "Putin is trying to recreate the Soviet Union" argument. In my opinion, he's just a tired old kleptocrat who has stolen so much money in the last 22 years that he's afraid of the Russian people rising up against him in some unexpected moment of discontent and taking him out. He's just doing what any dictator does when he's worried about being overthrown: he starts a war.

He would use tactical nuclear weapons. That doesn't require competent troops or conventional warfare. I think he will do whatever it takes to regain the narrative that he's a truly scary dictator. He's kind of lost that with all this military incompetence.

I don't think there is anything we can offer Putin to get him to stop. He has only one gear: forward. He has never shown any ability to compromise, negotiate or back down. He only escalates. In his mind, anything less is a sign of weakness and for him weakness is equal to death because he thinks he will be overthrown and killed if he is seen to be weak.