Bartweiss

It matters surprisingly little. You can't have a sample of completely ignorant people (no swarm can win at "what number am I thinking of?"), but after that you're in pretty good shape. Prediction markets (which this approximates) regularly outperform all of their members and any single expert, even if they're picked from the general public.

The one question I can't answer is whether "open swarms" beat "expert swarms". I assume that 100 experts beat 100 randos, but I don't know if 100 experts can beat 1,000,000 randos, and that's a more relevant question.

Interestingly, the Reddit voting system is also subject to huge selection bias. The general weight of voting is positive, and the most-upvoted comments are displayed to the most users, so you have social influence bias and a selection bias applying that positive average to the earliest winners.

It doesn't resemble a functional prediction system, and it's good of you to point it out.

This is allowable under the constitution, but can you explain your thoughts on use of these letters in the face of international law?

I'm aware that the United States isn't a formal signatory to the Paris Declaration, but we are signatories to the relevant components of the 1907 Hague Convention. Letters of Marque haven't been resorted to by a major power in more than a century and are illegal by standards not only generally agreed upon, but set and signed by Theodore Roosevelt. Do you honestly believe that return to them is now a viable and legitimate action?

Can you discuss why you support VAT? My general impression is that it's effectively a regressive tax because people who live hand-to-mouth pay it on their entire income, while richer people pay it only on the 'consumption' chunk of their income.

I'm aware that this can be reduced by exempting/reducing VAT for things like food and medicine, but I'm curious about why you picked this model.

While I believe you, the per capita incarceration rate here is about 7x that of Canada. Beyond that, we restrict the voting rights of parolees (and some people off parole). I would estimate that >1% of Americans are subject to these laws.

It's not an answer on what should be done, just a note that there are many people affected by this in the US.