APnews

From Dr. Sharfstein:

1--worse than today
2--much worse than today
3--hard to predict. that's why we need to take this seriously now

From Dr. Sharfstein:

My parents have decided to cancel their trip to visit my brother in Tennessee. Everyone should be looking for positive news in helping people most at risk to stay safe. More broadly, I appreciate how quickly so many states and localities are taking serious action, how the healthcare system is mobilizing, and how the conversation has shifted to #flattenthecurve. This is what needs to happen so the US doesn't experiences the challenges of Italy.

From Dr. Sharfstein: Yes, it is generally safe to take a walk outside. However, it's best to avoid close contact with other people on the walk.

From Dr. Sharfstein:

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So this is a big question. Some are actually estimating infections to 2/3 or so of the US population in the first year. So these kinds of numbers are not fantasy. At the same time, while we have evidence of the case fatality rate, we don't have great evidence of the infection fatality rate. Meaning, we need to include in the fatality rate the denominator the people who were infected but didn't realize it. Some people think there may be a lot of people like this, which would reduce the mortality rate well below 1.2%. So a lot of uncertainty, but yes, those numbers are possible. Another key point is that if we slow down the speed of the infections we'll be able to maintain high quality clinical care which will reduce the mortality rate.

From Dr. Sharfstein:

My answer is we do not have a handle on the total number cases in the US because of the delays in testing. As testing becomes more available, we'll know more about actual cases of ill individuals. But that's not everyone who is infected. To know the full number, we'll need a different kind of test to be used -- one that measures evidence of past exposure. These tests are under review by FDA. These tests will identify people who were infected but had no symptoms.