Yesterday I participated in Moscow protests demanding free parliamentary elections, Riot police beat everyone but I managed to escape a riot police round-up. AMA!

In your opinion, what happens in the next five years in Russia?

How will Putin attempt to consolidate power next?

Nothing happens, this corruption and unfair elections have been a staple of Russian politics since the early 90s (possibly as a result of the rampant capitalism introduced by Gorbachev). A single protest in Moscow, despite how bad it looks in the pictures, is very unlikely to change anything or even general public opinion towards Putin (especially in more rural regions).

In terms of consolidating power he doesn’t have to do anything. He’s already an absolute dictator and a protest like that won’t threaten him at all. Unfortunately this will likely continue until Putin is succeeded by someone who wasn’t directly appointed by him, from his administration (like Medvedev).

Source: lived in Russia for 12 years

I'd like to disagree with you.

Are you living in Russia now?

This protest may not concern him but a protest mass is slowly building towards 2021-2024 when it will really matter.

2021 being state parliament elections and 2024 - presidential elections

Did the organizers anticipate mass arrests?

Yes. They hoped for the best though. This protest is not sanctioned in any way.

What's the most likely outcome for those arrested? Civil fines, maybe a couple days in jail?

Up to 15 days in jail which obviously interrupts their work schedule and puts their jobs in danger

What started the protests? Was it some sort of scandal that came to light, are people just sick of having Putin in charge for the past 20 years?

Not OP but I can answer this question. The protests are because opposition candidates have been removed from the ballot in local (i.e. mayor of Moscow) elections. They are required to get a certain number of signatures (several thousand) to get on the ballot, which is difficult because those who sign the petition go on government watch-lists as opposition supporters. Despite this, many opposition candidates gathered the required number of signatures, but the authorities used technicalities (improper address, illegible signature, etc.) to eliminate enough signatures and say they don't meet the requirement to be in the election, leaving only United Russia candidates (Putin's political party) on the ballot for upcoming elections.

Edit: Apparently the elections include local positions for state duma, i.e. positions in congress.

Yup, nothing to see here, move along, everythings fine, seems legit.

To add to that, there is a point of legitimacy expressed as spoiler candidates.

So it's essentially faked as real vote with many candidates from many different (on paper) parties.

But all of these candidates are either pre-approved or not as known by media as the opinion leaders. So there are one independent candidate that I know who supports the protest and was registered. But he does not have many twitter followers and is unknown to general public. He did a good job collecting signatures in his district though so he's known there.

Also approving one or two independents is a good move in maintaining illusion of democracy. This phenomenon is called hybrid regime. Some independent candidates may even be elected as heads of their districts. The barriers start at the local city level

Are you worried that posting this thread might lead to your arrest?

If people will keep asking me for proof, yes

I think you can send some proof to the mods, it will be kept private.

Oh, they removed the post. I did sent the most comprehensive proof I would (since I do not photo myself on protests) but they didn't answer yet

Did you sense of lack of preparedness from the fellow protestors? This due to limited communication and info censorship.

What do you mean by preparedness?

Well for context, in my home country, first time protestors were not prepared in how to face tear gas attack, prepare for signal jammers, avoid provaction etc.

This got improved over the years

Unfortunately, people are not prepared at all as this is the first protest this year (the previous sanctioned protest was a week ago but there were no danger of being beaten).

We definitely need to adopt better communications. There was a fair amount of signal jamming so the protests kinda disintegrated by evening.

In your opinion, is this sentiment shared in the same magnitude as the unrest in Hong Kong? Basically, do you think that this protest (or series of protests) will escalate into larger and larger confrontations?

Asking because I'm wondering to what extent is your dissatisfaction with the government shared by other citizens. Will more people be willing to protest?

It will escalate. Because the ordinary citizens sympathise us. I've seen it with my own eyes. The car signals were whistling. Pedestrians didn't speak out their discontent towards us - they were giving us a high fives, etc.

Do the people they arrest come back alive?

Yes, but beaten

So they beat them back in their police hq?

In some stations they do, in some stations they don't. I'm yet to visit those stations where they do but at least one was confirmed

I don't consume Russian media, how is it? Movies, music, news, etc

Is it full of propaganda and obvious lies?

News? Yes.

Movies? They're just trash short of our movie depicting the USSR olympic victory in basketball. They did a good job and Lithuanians are portrayed accurately.

Do you think you make a diffrence?

No. Because I haven't kicked the police. I was polite. Those who grabbed the people from police hands made the difference. Then they were beaten and arrested

Ah, hope somone who matter and actually made a diffrence does an AMA. Not all these side liners

ok next time I'll post my confirmation photo after jail

Why was the protest? Also, i've been learning Russian in hopes of going there to live a few months/years, do you advise against it?

As long as you do not participate in politics, you're fine