ag-guy

The vast majority of commodity futures contracts are closed out before expiration and never get to the physical delivery stage. Most futures exchanges also have rules which limit trading participation in the days before expiration to market players who are registered to make and take physical delivery so the situation you are describing can be prevented,

Most commodities are grown for the "open-market" and are not contracted before they are produced. Thats why it is important to have visible and viable futures markets to send price signals to both producers and consumers. There are production contracts used for specialized crops as you mentioned - specific wheat types or oilseeds with specific traits - when those attributes aren't easily reflected in futures market contracts.

There are market reports for most major commodities that are released by USDA. The contents of the report are held in confidence until they are released so the market is getting the official news all at the same time. There are many public and private forecasters who try to predict what the reports will say, but no one in the market has the results before they are released. When there are big changes, the market can definitely react strongly - like in the movie!

It is crop specific, but for the largest traded futures markets - wheat, corn, soy- the vast majority is grown for the open market. For those crop where there is a special variety grown on a production contract, the pricing formula usually has a component that references the underlying commodity price and then adds a specific premium for the special attribute.

The conflict in Ukraine has undoubtedly been very disruptive to people directly impacted but the global food system has, for the most part, adjusted well. Grain has been shipped out of the region to markets that needed it and while prices spiked immeadiately after the invasion, they have stabilized at levels lower before the war. Global wheat production in 2023/24 will be higher than either of the previous two years,