AndrewSimmonsAJE

I AM SORRY BUT THE SITUATION ON THE TURKISH BORDER WITH SYRIA HAS BECOME WORSE. THE FIRST ATTACK BY SYRIA WHICH HAS KILLED TURKISH NATIONALS AND THEY INCLUDE CHILDREN. TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTER IN PHONE CONTACT WITH UN SEC GEN BAN KI MOON. I HAVE TO GO NOW TO PREPARE FOR LIVE REPORT AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR -- 17G -- PLEASE WATCH IF YOU CAN ONLINE http://www.aljazeera.com/watch_now/

That is hard to predict. And dependant on how they can somehow co-ordinate their actions on the ground in a better way. Not only that and far more crucial they are crying out for more effective heavier weaponry and more ammunition supplies.

I was in Istanbul when Hilary Clinton pledged more humanitarian aid in August and there have been more such gestures since. There is aid - but not enough - reaching the 90,000 + Syrian refugees here in Turkey. But on the other side of the border next to nil. Western NGOs and aid agencies are very thin on the ground, partly because the Syrian Government doesn't want them there, Last week I was at Atma camp - a stone's throw from the border where 7,000 internally displaced people are living in dire conditions. Many under the branches of olive trees strewn with the few blankets they possess. I spoke at length to a Syrian lawyer there who explained he didn't necessarily want to leave the country he loved.. he was living in those awful conditions to keep his kids safe. Sorry have to cut short.. shells have landed Turkish side of border at least five dead and we have to do a team briefing, Back within 15 minutes.

Without doubt this is civil war. Assad going a percentage chance???? I am not a betting man but I would put it as high. The only question is when and how. It could be a very long time with who knows how many civilian deaths before there is some solution which is more than likely in my view to be well after the US elections. This country would be better off with a political settlement but that is out of reach right now. A worse situation? It could indeed get worse and as things stand that is probably likely. If what you mean is could chemical weapons be involved or could the war spread regionally for now these threats are further down the road .. as threats I mean.

On your second question - I've never thankfully been near to a suicide bomber. In this conflict I have been lucky so far although only a few days ago we had to take hard cover during an air raid. In the past yes I have been too close to gun fights. In Grozny, Chechnya and in Bosnia. And in Iraq on Gulf War 1 I was taken prisoner by the republican guard in Basra for more than a week. At one stage it looked like I was going to be executed. However, it was at the end of the conflict and I along with the rest of the team for the UK news organisation ITN became part of the final peace deal by being classified as POWs and handed over to the ICRC in Baghdad.